Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

Playing hide and seek with El Niño

Nature Climate Change volume 5, pages 791–795 (2015)Cite this article

Subjects

A much-anticipated 'monster' El Niño failed to materialize in 2014, whereas an unforeseen strong El Niño is developing in 2015. El Niño continues to surprise us, despite decades of research into its causes. Natural variations most probably account for recent events, but climate change may also have played a role.

The scientific community has invested considerable effort over the past 50 years in studying El Niño, ever since Jacob Bjerknes first described unusual warm events in the tropical Pacific as the consequence of coupled interactions between the ocean and the overlying atmosphere1. El Niño and its cold counterpart La Niña represent the strongest year-to-year climate fluctuation on the planet2. What has motivated so much interest in these climatic siblings (which we collectively refer to as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, cycle) is not only the quest to understand how they work, but also a societal imperative to accurately predict their evolution to help anticipate impacts on lives, property, economic activity and the environment. How ENSO may change in the future owing to greenhouse gas forcing is likewise one of the most compelling problems in climate research today3.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Relevant articles

Open Access articles citing this article.

Access options

Rent or buy this article

Get just this article for as long as you need it

$39.95

Learn more

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: Evolution of conditions in 2014 in comparison to 1997.
Figure 2: Relationship between upper-ocean heat content and ENSO SST anomalies.
Figure 3: Monthly NINO-3.4 SST anomalies for El Niños since the 1950s.

References

  1. Bjerknes, J. Tellus 18, 820–829 (1966).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. McPhaden, M. J., Zebiak, S. E. & Glantz, M. H. Science 314, 1740–1745 (2006).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  3. Cai, W. et al. Nature Clim. Change 5, 849–859 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Menkes, C. E. et al. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 6476–6483 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Chen, D. et al. Nature Geosci. 8, 339–345 (2015).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  6. McPhaden, M. J. Science 283, 950–954 (1999).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  7. McPhaden, M. J. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L09706 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Jin, F. F. J. Atmos. Sci. 54, 811–829 (1997).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (Climate Predication Center, 10 July 2014); http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_jul2014/

  10. Roach, J. Monster El Niño may be brewing, experts say. NBC News (19 April 2014); http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/california-drought/monster-el-nino-may-be-brewing-experts-say-n83526

  11. Plumer, B. Scientists were expecting a big El Niño this year. So where did it go? Vox (8 November 2014); http://www.vox.com/2014/11/8/7177709/el-nino-2014-forecast-weakening

  12. Blunden, J. & Arndt, D. S. (eds) Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 96, (State of the Climate in 2014 special supplement) S1–S267 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (Climate Predication Center, 8 January 2015); http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_jan2015/

  14. Hannam, P. Cyclone Raquel to give El Niño a major kick along. Sydney Morning Herald (3 July 2015); http://go.nature.com/XFyrJp

    Google Scholar 

  15. Freedman, A. Trio of Pacific typhoons intensify, creep closer to China and Japan. Mashable (8 July 2015); http://go.nature.com/jKwvoT

    Google Scholar 

  16. Lengaigne, M. et al. Clim. Dynam. 23, 601–620 (2004).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Eisenman, I., Yu, L. & Tziperman, E. J. Climate 18, 5224–5238 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Levine, A. F. Z. & McPhaden, M. J. Geophys. Res. Lett. 42, 5034–5041 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (Climate Predication Center, 9 July 2015); http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_jul2015/

  20. Stein, K. et al. J. Climate 23, 5629–5643 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Schopf, P. S. & Suarez, M. J. J. Atmos. Sci. 45, 549–566 (1988).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Battisti, D. S. & Hirst, A. C. J. Atmos. Sci. 46, 1687–1712 (1989).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. England, M. H. et al. Nature Clim. Change 4, 222–227 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Kosaka, Y. & Xie, S.-P. Nature 501, 403–407 (2013).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  25. Cravatte, S. E. et al. Clim. Dynam. 33, 565–589 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Han, W. et al. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 95, 1679–1703 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Capotondi, A. et al. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 96, 921–938 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. McPhaden, M. J. et al. J. Geophys. Res. 103, 14169–14240 (1998).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Reynolds, R. W. et al. J. Climate 15, 1609–1625 (2002).

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This is PMEL publication no. 4335.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. M. J. McPhaden is in the NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL), Seattle, Washington 98115, USA,

    M. J. McPhaden

Authors
  1. M. J. McPhaden
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to M. J. McPhaden.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

McPhaden, M. Playing hide and seek with El Niño. Nature Clim Change 5, 791–795 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2775

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2775

This article is cited by

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing