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Sources of uncertainties in cod distribution models

Nature Climate Change volume 5, pages 788–789 (2015)Cite this article

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To the Editor —

Wisz et al.1 predicted a substantial exchange of fish species between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans across the Arctic by 2100, including up to 41 species entering the Pacific from the Atlantic. Special attention was given to three commercially important species Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), Atlantic wolffish (Anarhichas lupus) and yellowfin sole (Limanda aspera). By 2100, they were predicted to colonize the Northeast Passage, potentially providing additional opportunities for high-latitude fisheries.

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Figure 1: Projection of suitable environmental conditions for Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) based on niche-models and observed current distribution of Atlantic cod in the Barents Sea.
Figure 2: Catch of Atlantic cod in the Barents Sea and in the rest of the Atlantic.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Marine Research (IMR), Box 1870 Nordnes, Bergen, N-5817, Norway

    Randi B. Ingvaldsen, Bjarte Bogstad, Harald Gjøsæter, Rolf Gradinger & Edda Johannesen

  2. Institute of Marine Fisheries and Oceanography (PINRO), Knipovich-St. 6, Murmansk, 183038, Russia

    Andrey V. Dolgov

  3. Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA), Fram Centre, PO Box 6606 Langnes, Tromsø, N-9296, Norway

    Kari E. Ellingsen & Torkild Tveraa

  4. Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, Faculty of Biosciences, Fisheries and Economics, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, N-9037, Norway

    Nigel G. Yoccoz

Authors
  1. Randi B. Ingvaldsen
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  2. Bjarte Bogstad
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Correspondence to Randi B. Ingvaldsen.

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Ingvaldsen, R., Bogstad, B., Dolgov, A. et al. Sources of uncertainties in cod distribution models. Nature Clim Change 5, 788–789 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2761

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