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Post-2020 climate agreements in the major economies assessed in the light of global models

Nature Climate Change volume 5, pages 119–126 (2015)Cite this article

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Abstract

Integrated assessment models can help in quantifying the implications of international climate agreements and regional climate action. This paper reviews scenario results from model intercomparison projects to explore different possible outcomes of post-2020 climate negotiations, recently announced pledges and their relation to the 2 °C target. We provide key information for all the major economies, such as the year of emission peaking, regional carbon budgets and emissions allowances. We highlight the distributional consequences of climate policies, and discuss the role of carbon markets for financing clean energy investments, and achieving efficiency and equity.

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Figure 1: Emission peaking time.
Figure 2: Regional carbon budgets.
Figure 3: Sectoral mitigation.
Figure 4: Emission targets.
Figure 5: Distribution of mitigation costs.
Figure 6: Investments.

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Acknowledgements

The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 under grant agreement no. 282846 (LIMITS).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) and Centro Euromediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Corso Magenta 63, Milan, 20123, Italy

    Massimo Tavoni & Giacomo Marangoni

  2. Department of Management and Economics, Politecnico di Milano, Via Lambruschini, Milano, 4b 20156, Italy

    Massimo Tavoni & Giacomo Marangoni

  3. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), PO Box 60 12 03, Potsdam, 14412, Germany

    Elmar Kriegler, Tino Aboumahboub, Gunnar Luderer & Anne Zimmer

  4. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg, 2361, Austria

    Keywan Riahi, Jessica Jewell & David McCollum

  5. Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University (UU), Heidelberglaan 2, Utrecht, NL-3584 CS, The Netherlands

    Detlef P. van Vuuren & Mariësse van Sluisveld

  6. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), Bilthoven, 3720 AH, The Netherlands

    Detlef P. van Vuuren & Mariësse van Sluisveld

  7. Grantham Research Institute, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), Houghton Street, London, WC2A 2AE, UK

    Alex Bowen & Emanuele Campiglio

  8. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory/Joint Global Change Research Institute (PNNL/JGCRI), College Park, 20740, Maryland, USA

    Katherine Calvin

  9. Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN), Radarweg 60, Amsterdam, 1043 NT, The Netherlands

    Tom Kober & Bob van der Zwaan

  10. University of Amsterdam, Faculty of Science, Science Park 904, Amsterdam, 1098 XH, The Netherlands

    Bob van der Zwaan

  11. Johns Hopkins University, School of Advanced International Studies, Via Belmeloro 11, Bologna, 40126, Italy

    Bob van der Zwaan

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  1. Massimo Tavoni
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Contributions

M.T., E.K., K.R. and D.V.V. conceived and designed the experiments. All authors performed the experiments. M.T. analysed the data and contributed materials and analysis tools. All authors wrote the paper.

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Correspondence to Massimo Tavoni.

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The authors declare no competing financial interests.

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Tavoni, M., Kriegler, E., Riahi, K. et al. Post-2020 climate agreements in the major economies assessed in the light of global models. Nature Clim Change 5, 119–126 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2475

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