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Betting on negative emissions

Nature Climate Change volume 4, pages 850–853 (2014)Cite this article

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Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage could be used to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. However, its credibility as a climate change mitigation option is unproven and its widespread deployment in climate stabilization scenarios might become a dangerous distraction.

Future warming will depend strongly on the cumulative CO2 emissions released through to the end of this century1,2. A finite quota of cumulative CO2 emissions, no more than 1,200 Gt CO2, is needed from 2015 onwards to stabilize climate below a global average of 2 °C above pre-industrial conditions by 2100 with a likelihood of 66%. This corresponds to about 30 years at current emissions levels3. However, during the past decade, emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production have increased substantially to 36.1 ± 1.8 Gt CO2 yr−1 in 2013 (refs 4,5), projected to reach 37.0 ± 1.8 Gt CO2 yr−1 in 2014 (ref. 3), 65% above their 1990 level. Staying within the 2 °C limit in a cost-effective way will require strong mitigation action across all sectors, with greater effort needed the longer mitigation is delayed.

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Figure 1: Carbon dioxide emission pathways until 2100 and the extent of net negative emissions and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) in 2100.
Figure 2

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Acknowledgements

This work is a collaborative effort under the MaGNET (Managing Global Negative Emissions Technologies) initiative of the Global Carbon Project (www.globalcarbonproject.org), a joint project of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, the International Human Dimension Programme on Global Environmental Change, the World Climate Research Programme and Diversitas. J.G.C. thanks the support of the Australian Climate Change Science Program. C.D.J. was supported by the Joint UK Department of Energy & Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). G.P.P. and R.M.A thank the support of the Norwegian Research Council (236296). Y.Y. and A.S. acknowledge that GCP Tsukuba office activities are supported by Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies. F.K. acknowledges support from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Tropical Flagship Initiative. M.T. acknowledges the Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research and the Italian Ministry of Environment, Land and Sea under the GEMINA project. C.L.Q. thanks the support of UK's Natural Environment Research Council (NE/103002X/1). R.B.J. acknowledges the US Department of Agriculture (AFRI #2012-00857).

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Affiliations

  1. Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Working Group Resources and International Trade, Torgauer Strasse 12–15, Berlin, 10829, Germany

    Sabine Fuss

  2. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg, 2361, Austria

    Sabine Fuss, Florian Kraxner & Nebosja Nakicenovic

  3. CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship, GPO Box 3023, Canberra, 2601, Australian Capital Territory, Australia

    Josep G. Canadell

  4. Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO), Gaustadalléen 21, Oslo, 0349, Norway

    Glen P. Peters & Robbie M. Andrew

  5. Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Centro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) and Politecnico di Milano, Corso Magenta, Milan, 63, Italy

    Massimo Tavoni

  6. Laboratorie des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Centre d'Etudes de Orme des Merisiers - BAT 709, 91191, Gif sur Yvette, France

    Philippe Ciais

  7. Stanford University, School of Earth Sciences, Woods Institute for the Environment, and Precourt Institute for Energy, 473 Vio Ortega, Stanford, 94305, California, USA

    Robert B. Jackson

  8. Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK

    Chris D. Jones

  9. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK

    Corinne Le Quéré

  10. Climate Change Institute, Fenner School, Australian National University, Canberra, 0200, Australian Capital Territory, Australia

    Michael R. Raupach

  11. National Institute for Environmental Studies, Onogawa 16-2, Tsukuba Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan

    Ayyoob Sharifi & Yoshiki Yamagata

  12. Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, 23 St Machar Drive, Aberdeen, AB24 3UU, UK

    Pete Smith

Authors
  1. Sabine Fuss
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  2. Josep G. Canadell
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  3. Glen P. Peters
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  4. Massimo Tavoni
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  5. Robbie M. Andrew
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  6. Philippe Ciais
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  8. Chris D. Jones
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  9. Florian Kraxner
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  10. Nebosja Nakicenovic
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  11. Corinne Le Quéré
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  12. Michael R. Raupach
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  14. Pete Smith
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  15. Yoshiki Yamagata
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Contributions

All authors contributed to the planning of the paper. S.F. led the work together with J.G.C. and prepared Fig. 2 including description of the framework benefiting from discussions with all authors. G.P.P., R.M.A. and M.T. prepared Fig. 1 and/or provided the associated analysis. All authors contributed to writing the Commentary, providing comments to the framework and input in terms of numbers and references backing the analysis.

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Correspondence to Sabine Fuss.

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Fuss, S., Canadell, J., Peters, G. et al. Betting on negative emissions. Nature Clim Change 4, 850–853 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2392

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