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  • Review Article
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Solar ultraviolet radiation in a changing climate

Nature Climate Change volume 4, pages 434–441 (2014)Cite this article

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Abstract

The projected large increases in damaging ultraviolet radiation as a result of global emissions of ozone-depleting substances have been forestalled by the success of the Montreal Protocol. New challenges are now arising in relation to climate change. We highlight the complex interactions between the drivers of climate change and those of stratospheric ozone depletion, and the positive and negative feedbacks among climate, ozone and ultraviolet radiation. These will result in both risks and benefits of exposure to ultraviolet radiation for the environment and human welfare. This Review synthesizes these new insights and their relevance in a world where changes in climate as well as in stratospheric ozone are altering exposure to ultraviolet radiation with largely unknown consequences for the biosphere.

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Figure 1: Observed (pre-2010) and projected changes in annual mean erythemal (sunburning) clear-sky UV-B radiation at Earth's surface, relative to 1980, for different latitude bands.
Figure 2: Conceptual model of aquatic and terrestrial processes that are possibly influenced by interactions between ultraviolet radiation and climate change.
Figure 3: Projection of the total numbers of excess new cases of total skin cancer per million people per year avoided by the Montreal Protocol in 2030 compared with a reference population that takes account of population growth only.
Figure 4: Predicted total skin cancer incidence per million population according to calendar year.

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Acknowledgements

We would like to acknowledge our fellow members of the UN Environmental Effects Assessment Panel for being part of the inspiration that has led to the present paper: A. Andrady, P. Aucamp, L. O. Björn, M. Caldwell, A. Cullen, F. de Gruijl, D. Erickson, W. Helbling, M. Ilyas, J. Longstreth, H. H. Redhwi, M. Shao, K. Solomon, Y. Takizawa, X. Tang, A. Torikai, J. van der Leun, S. Wilson and R. Worrest. This article has been reviewed in accordance with the US Environmental Protection Agency's (US EPA) peer- and administrative-review policies and approved for publication. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute an endorsement or recommendation for use by the US EPA.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Biology, 212 Pearson Hall, Miami University, Oxford, 45056, Ohio, USA

    Craig E. Williamson

  2. United States Environmental Protection Agency, 960 College Station Road, Athens, 30605-2700, Georgia, USA

    Richard G. Zepp

  3. Telethon Kids Institute, University of Western Australia, 100 Roberts Road, Subiaco, Perth, 6008, Western Australia, Australia

    Robyn M. Lucas

  4. National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, The Australian National University, Cnr Mills and Eggleston Roads, Canberra, 0200, Australian Capital Territory, Australia

    Robyn M. Lucas

  5. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, 80307, Colorado, USA

    Sasha Madronich

  6. IFEVA Universidad de Buenos Aires and IIB Universidad Nacional de San Martín, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Avenida San Martin 4453, C1417DSE, Buenos Aires, Argentina

    Amy T. Austin & Carlos L. Ballaré

  7. Biomedical Science, University of Edinburgh Medical School, Teviot Place, EH8 9AG, Edinburgh, UK

    Mary Norval

  8. Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology (Eawag), Überlandstrasse 133, PO Box 611, Duübendorf, CH-8600, Switzerland

    Barbara Sulzberger

  9. Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics, Campus Box 149, Thessaloniki, 54124, Greece

    Alkiviadis F. Bais

  10. National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), Lauder, Private Bag 50061 Omakau, 9352, Central Otago, New Zealand

    Richard L. McKenzie

  11. Institute for Conservation Biology and Environmental Management, School of Biological Sciences, University of Wollongong, Northfields Avenue, Wollongong, 2522, New South Wales, Australia

    Sharon A. Robinson

  12. Neue Strasse 9, 91096, Möhrendorf, Germany

    Donat-P. Häder

  13. Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4YQ, UK

    Nigel D. Paul

  14. International Institute of Agri-Food Security (IIAFS), Curtin University, Building 408, PO Box U1987, Perth, 6845, Western Australia, Australia

    Janet F. Bornman

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  1. Craig E. Williamson
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  14. Janet F. Bornman
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Contributions

All authors have helped to develop the paper. C.E.W., R.G.Z., R.M.L. and S.M. played major roles, equally contributing to the conceptualization and writing of the paper. J.F.B. provided content, organized and coordinated the paper and contributed comments and revisions on all the drafts. A.T.A. and C.L.B. contributed text to the terrestrial and aquatic sections. S.A.R. provided text and comments on the terrestrial ecosystems. M.N. contributed to the health section and provided comments on the drafts. B.S. made contributions particularly to the biogeochemical sections. A.F.B. and R.L.M. contributed input to the UV effects and the atmosphere. D.P.H. provided input to the aquatic section. N.D.P. helped with the initial drafts and writing.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Janet F. Bornman.

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Williamson, C., Zepp, R., Lucas, R. et al. Solar ultraviolet radiation in a changing climate. Nature Clim Change 4, 434–441 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2225

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