Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

Heat stress increases long-term human migration in rural Pakistan

Nature Climate Change volume 4, pages 182–185 (2014)Cite this article

Subjects

Abstract

Human migration attributable to climate events has recently received significant attention from the academic and policy communities 1,2. Quantitative evidence on the relationship between individual, permanent migration and natural disasters is limited 3,4,5,6,7,8,9. A 21-year longitudinal survey conducted in rural Pakistan (1991–2012) provides a unique opportunity to understand the relationship between weather and long-term migration. We link individual-level information from this survey to satellite-derived measures of climate variability and control for potential confounders using a multivariate approach. We find that flooding—a climate shock associated with large relief efforts—has modest to insignificant impacts on migration. Heat stress, however—which has attracted relatively little relief—consistently increases the long-term migration of men, driven by a negative effect on farm and non-farm income. Addressing weather-related displacement will require policies that both enhance resilience to climate shocks and lower barriers to welfare-enhancing population movements.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Relevant articles

Open Access articles citing this article.

Access options

Rent or buy this article

Prices vary by article type

from$1.95

to$39.95

Learn more

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: Predicted probabilities of out-of-village migration by gender.

References

  1. Strömberg, D. Natural disasters, economic development, and humanitarian aid. J. Econ. Perspect. 21, 199–222 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Maystadt, J. & Mueller, V. Environmental migrants: A myth? IFPRI Research Brief 20 (2012).

  3. Halliday, T. Migration, risk, and liquidity constraints in El Salvador. Econ. Dev. Cult. Change 54, 893–925 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Dillon, A., Mueller, V. & Salau, S. Migratory responses to agricultural risk in northern Nigeria. Am. J. Agric. Econ. 93, 1048–1061 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Gray, C. & Mueller, V. Drought and population mobility in rural Ethiopia. World Dev. 40, 134–145 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Gray, C. & Mueller, V. Natural disaster and population mobility in Bangladesh. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 109, 6000–6005 (2012).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  7. Marchiori, L., Maystadt, J. & Schumacher, I. The impact of weather anomalies on migration in sub-Saharan Africa. J. Environ. Econ. Manage. 63, 355–374 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Gray, C. & Bilsborrow, R. Environmental influences on human migration in rural Ecuador. Demography 50, 1217–1241 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Feng, S., Krueger, A. & Oppenheimer, M. Linkages among climate change, crop yields and Mexico–US cross-border migration. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 107, 14257–14262 (2010).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  10. International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) World Disasters Report 2011: Focus on Hunger and Malnutrition (IFRC, 2011).

  11. Walsh, D. Pakistan flood crisis as bad as African famines, UN says. The Guardian (27 January 2011); www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jan/27/pakistan-flood-crisis-african-famines (Accessed September 13, 2012).

  12. Rasul, G. et al. Effect of temperature rise on crop growth & productivity. Pak. J. Meterol. 8, 53–62 (2011).

    Google Scholar 

  13. Bie Lilleør, H. & Van den Broeck, K. Economic drivers of migration and climate change in LDCs. Glob. Environ. Change 21, S70–S81 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Pakistan Panel Survey, 1986–1991 (International Food Policy Research Institute, 2000); http://www.ifpri.org/dataset/pakistan-panel-survey-1986-1991

  15. Henry, S., Schoumaker, B. & Beauchemin, C. The impact of rainfall on the first out-migration: A multi-level event-history analysis in Burkina Faso. Popul. Environ. 25, 423–460 (2004).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Gray, C. Environment, land and rural out-migration in the southern Ecuadorian Andes. World Dev. 37, 457–468 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Massey, D., Axinn, W. & Ghimire, D. Environmental change and out-migration: Evidence from Nepal. Popul. Environ. 32, 109–136 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Gray, C. Soil quality and human migration in Kenya and Uganda. Glob. Environ. Change 21, 421–430 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Brakenridge, G. R. Global Active Archive of Large Flood Events (Dartmouth Flood Observatory, University of Colorado, 2012); http://floodobservatory.colorado.edu/Archives/index.html

  20. Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Beguería, S. & López-Moreno, J. A multi-scalar drought index sensitive to global warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index—SPEI. J. Clim. 23, 1696–1718 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Rosenzweig, M. & Stark, O. Consumption smoothing, migration, and marriage: Evidence from Rural India. J. Pol. Econ. 97, 905–926 (1989).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. McKenzie, D., Gibson, J. & Stillman, S. How important is selection? Experimental vs. non-experimental measures of the income gains from migration. J. Euro. Econ. Assoc. 8, 913–945 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Beegle, K., De Weerdt, J. & Dercon, S. Migration and economic mobility in Tanzania: Evidence from a tracking survey. Rev. Econ. Stat. 93, 1010–1033 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Fitzgerald, J., Gottschalk, P. & Moffit, R. An analysis of sample attrition in panel data. J. Hum. Resour. 33, 251–299 (1998).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Thomas, D. et al. Cutting the costs of attrition: Evidence from the Indonesia Family Life Survey. J. Dev. Econ. 98, 108–123 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Auffhammer, M., Hsiang, S. M., Schlenker, W. & Sobel, A. Using weather data and climate model output in economic analyses of climate change. Rev. Environ. Econ. Policy 7, 181–198

Download references

Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful for assistance and constructive comments from M. Auffhammer, M. Call, P. Dorosh, S. Hamza Haider, S. Hausladen, L. Hunter, J. Koo, H. L. Lee, S. Malik, J-F. Maystadt, H. Nazli, C. Ringler, W. Schlenker, E. Schmidt, T. Thomas, H. Tilahun, H. Xie, T. Zhu, and Innovative Development Strategies in this research. The participation of C.G. was supported by the National Institutes of Health (R00HD061752).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington DC 20006, USA

    V. Mueller & K. Kosec

  2. Department of Geography, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27599, USA

    C. Gray

Authors
  1. V. Mueller
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. C. Gray
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. K. Kosec
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

V.M., C.G. and K.K. designed and performed the research, analysed the data, and wrote the paper.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to V. Mueller.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Supplementary information

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Mueller, V., Gray, C. & Kosec, K. Heat stress increases long-term human migration in rural Pakistan. Nature Clim Change 4, 182–185 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2103

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2103

This article is cited by

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing