A key question surrounding proposals for climate engineering by increasing Earth's reflection of sunlight is the feasibility of detecting engineered albedo increases from short-duration experiments or prolonged implementation of solar-radiation management. We show that satellite observations permit detection of large increases, but interannual variability overwhelms the maximum conceivable albedo increases for some schemes. Detection of an abrupt global average albedo increase <0.002 (comparable to a ∼0.7 W m−2 reduction in radiative forcing) would be unlikely within a year, given a five-year prior record. A three-month experiment in the equatorial zone (5° N–5° S), a potential target for stratospheric aerosol injection, would need to cause an ∼0.03 albedo increase, three times larger than that due to the Mount Pinatubo eruption, to be detected. Detection limits for three-month experiments in 1° (latitude and longitude) regions of the subtropical Pacific, possible targets for cloud brightening, are ∼0.2, which is larger than might be expected from some model simulations.
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Seidel, D., Feingold, G., Jacobson, A. et al. Detection limits of albedo changes induced by climate engineering. Nature Clim Change 4, 93–98 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2076
Nature Climate Change (2014)
Nature Climate Change (2014)