Clim. Policy http://doi.org/pzc (2013)

Credit: © CLYNT GARNHAM ENERGY/ALAMY

The Fukushima Daiichi accident in 2011 — and the consequent public reactions — has led countries to revisit plans about nuclear energy. However, limiting or discontinuing nuclear power generation (such as Sizewell A, pictured, which closed down in 2006) could increase the costs of international climate policy.

Vicki Duscha, of the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research, Germany, and co-authors used a global energy systems model to analyse the effects of a nuclear phase-out on the costs of compliance with mitigation policy. Greenhouse gas emissions would increase by 2% globally and 7% in countries with binding reduction targets under the Kyoto Protocol (Annex I countries), whereas the price of emissions certificates would increase by 24%. The total costs of meeting the 2020 pledges agreed in Copenhagen for Annex I countries would rise by 28%. Japan and the USA would be the most affected, particularly without access to certificate trading owing to non-participation in a second Kyoto commitment period — meeting policy targets would be much more expensive.