Actions to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions often reduce co-emitted air pollutants, bringing co-benefits for air quality and human health. Past studies1,2,3,4,5,6 typically evaluated near-term and local co-benefits, neglecting the long-range transport of air pollutants7,8,9, long-term demographic changes, and the influence of climate change on air quality10,11,12. Here we simulate the co-benefits of global GHG reductions on air quality and human health using a global atmospheric model and consistent future scenarios, via two mechanisms: reducing co-emitted air pollutants, and slowing climate change and its effect on air quality. We use new relationships between chronic mortality and exposure to fine particulate matter13 and ozone14, global modelling methods15 and new future scenarios16. Relative to a reference scenario, global GHG mitigation avoids 0.5±0.2, 1.3±0.5 and 2.2±0.8 million premature deaths in 2030, 2050 and 2100. Global average marginal co-benefits of avoided mortality are US$50–380 per tonne of CO2, which exceed previous estimates, exceed marginal abatement costs in 2030 and 2050, and are within the low range of costs in 2100. East Asian co-benefits are 10–70 times the marginal cost in 2030. Air quality and health co-benefits, especially as they are mainly local and near-term, provide strong additional motivation for transitioning to a low-carbon future.
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This publication was financially supported by the US Environmental Protection Agency STAR grant #834285, the Integrated Assessment Research Program in the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences grant #1 R21 ES022600-01, fellowship SFRH/BD/62759/2009 from the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (to R.A.S.), and an EPA STAR Graduate Fellowship (to M.M.F.). Its contents are solely the responsibility of the grantee and do not necessarily represent the official views of the USEPA or other funding sources. USEPA and other funding sources do not endorse the purchase of any commercial products or services mentioned in the publication. NCAR is operated by the University Corporation of Atmospheric Research under sponsorship of the National Science Foundation. We thank the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration for computing resources, L. Emmons for MOZART-4 guidance, and G. Characklis.
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Ambient PM2.5 exposure and expected premature mortality to 2100 in India under climate change scenarios
Nature Communications (2018)