Commentary | Published:

Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years

Nature Climate Change volume 3, pages 767769 (2013) | Download Citation

Recent observed global warming is significantly less than that simulated by climate models. This difference might be explained by some combination of errors in external forcing, model response and internal climate variability.

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Acknowledgements

We thank Greg Flato, Bill Merryfield and Slava Kharin for their comments on an early draft, Knutti Reto for input on our statistical analysis and Piers Forster and Jochem Marotzke for many helpful discussions. We acknowledge the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison and the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling for their roles in making the WCRP CMIP multi-model datasets available.

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Affiliations

  1. Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, Victoria, British Columbia V8W 2Y2, Canada

    • John C. Fyfe
    •  & Nathan P. Gillett
  2. Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia V8W 3R4, Canada

    • Francis W. Zwiers

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Contributions

J.C.F. helped to carry out the analysis and wrote the initial draft. N.P.G. and F.W.Z. helped with the analysis and edited the manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to John C. Fyfe.

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DOI

https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1972

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