Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

Expert judgement assessment

Quantifying uncertainty on thin ice

The contribution of ice sheets to sea-level rise still has large uncertainties that are yet to be quantified.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Rent or buy this article

Get just this article for as long as you need it


Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: West Antarctic Ice Sheet contribution to SLR by 2100.


  1. IPCC Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report (eds Pachauri, K. & Reisinger, A.) 45 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007).

  2. Krinner, G. & Durand, G. Nature Clim. Change 2, 396–397 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Little, C. M., Oppenheimer, M. & Urban, N. M. Nature Clim. Change (2013).

  4. Little, C. M., Urban, N. M. & Oppenheimer, M. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 110, 3264–3269 (2013).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  5. Bamber, J. L. & Aspinall, W. P. Nature Clim. Change 3, 424–427 10.1038/nclimate1778 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Cooke, R. M. Experts in Uncertainty (Oxford Univ. Press, 1991).

    Google Scholar 

  7. Aspinall, W. P. A route to more tractable expert advice. Nature 463, 294–295 (2010).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  8. Goossens, L. H. J. & Kelly, G. N. (eds) Radiation Protection and Dosimetry 90 (special issue) 293–381 (2000).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Tuomisto, J. T., Wilson, A., Cooke, R. M., Tainio, M. & Evans, J. S. Epidemiology 16, S74–S75 (September 2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Tyshenko, M. G. et al. Int. J. Risk Assess. Manage. 16, 48–77 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Rothlisberger, J. D., Finnoff, D. C., Cooke, R. M. & Lodge, D. M. Ecosystems 15, 462–476 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Martin, T. G. et al. Conserv. Biol. 26, 29–38 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Schaeffer, M., Hare, W., Rahmstorf, S. & Vermeer, M. Nature Clim. Change 2, 867–870 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations


Corresponding author

Correspondence to R. M. Cooke.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Cooke, R. Quantifying uncertainty on thin ice. Nature Clim Change 3, 311–312 (2013).

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI:


Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing