Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

Temperature and vegetation seasonality diminishment over northern lands

Nature Climate Change volume 3, pages 581–586 (2013)Cite this article

Subjects

Abstract

Global temperature is increasing, especially over northern lands (>50° N), owing to positive feedbacks1. As this increase is most pronounced in winter, temperature seasonality (ST)—conventionally defined as the difference between summer and winter temperatures—is diminishing over time2, a phenomenon that is analogous to its equatorward decline at an annual scale. The initiation, termination and performance of vegetation photosynthetic activity are tied to threshold temperatures3. Trends in the timing of these thresholds and cumulative temperatures above them may alter vegetation productivity, or modify vegetation seasonality (SV), over time. The relationship between ST and SV is critically examined here with newly improved ground and satellite data sets. The observed diminishment of ST and SV is equivalent to 4° and 7° (5° and 6°) latitudinal shift equatorward during the past 30 years in the Arctic (boreal) region. Analysis of simulations from 17 state-of-the-art climate models4 indicates an additional STdiminishment equivalent to a 20° equatorward shift could occur this century. How SV will change in response to such large projected ST declines and the impact this will have on ecosystem services5 are not well understood. Hence the need for continued monitoring6 of northern lands as their seasonal temperature profiles evolve to resemble thosefurther south.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Relevant articles

Open Access articles citing this article.

Access options

Rent or buy this article

Get just this article for as long as you need it

$39.95

Learn more

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: Latitudinal and temporal variation of temperature and vegetation seasonality (ST and SV).
Figure 2: Spatial patterns of changes in vegetation photosynthetic activity.
Figure 3: Relationship between temperature and vegetation seasonality (ST and SV).
Figure 4: Historical and projected seasonality declines.

References

  1. Serreze, M. C. & Barry, R. G. Processes and impacts of Arctic amplification: A research synthesis. Glob. Planet. Change 77, 85–96 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Mann, M. E. & Park, J. Greenhouse warming and changes in the seasonal cycle of temperature: Model versus observations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 23, 1111–1114 (1996).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  3. Myneni, R. B., Keeling, C. D., Tucker, C. J., Asrar, G. & Nemani, R. R. Increased plant growth in the northern high latitudes from 1981 to 1991. Nature 386, 698–702 (1997).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  4. Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J. & Meehl, G. A. An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 93, 485–498 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Chapin, F. S. et al. in Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Current State and Trends 717–743 (Island Press, 2005).

    Google Scholar 

  6. Post, E. et al. Ecological dynamics across the arctic associated with recent climate change. Science 325, 1355–1358 (2009).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  7. Hays, J. D., Imbrie, J. & Shackleton, N. J. Variations in the Earth’s orbit: Pacemaker of the ice ages. Science 194, 1121–1132 (1976).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  8. Bhatt, U. S. et al. Circumpolar arctic tundra vegetation change is linked to sea ice decline. Earth Interact. 14, 1–20 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Zhou, L. et al. Variations in northern vegetation activity inferred from satellite data of vegetation index during 1981 to 1999. J. Geophys. Res. 106, 20069–20083 (2001).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Beck, P. S. A. & Goetz, S. J. Satellite observations of high northern latitude vegetation productivity changes between 1982 and 2008: Ecological variability and regional differences. Environ. Res. Lett. 6, 045501 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Forbes, B. C., Macias-Fauria, M. & Zetterberg, P. Russian Arctic warming and ‘greening’ are closely tracked by tundra shrub willows. Glob. Change Biol. 16, 1542–1554 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Macias-Fauria, M., Forbes, B. C., Zetterberg, P. & Kumpula, T. Eurasian Arctic greening reveals teleconnections and the potential for structurally novel ecosystems. Nature Clim. Change 2, 613–618 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Walker, M. D. et al. Plant community responses to experimental warming across the tundra biome. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 103, 1342–1346 (2006).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  14. Myers-Smith, I. H. et al. Shrub expansion in tundra ecosystems: Dynamics, impacts and research priorities. Environ. Res. Lett. 6, 045509 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Callaghan, T. V., Tweedie, C. E. & Webber, P. J. Multi-decadal changes in tundra environments and ecosystems: The International Polar Year-Back to the Future Project (IPY-BTF). Ambio 40, 555–557 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Peng, C. et al. A drought-induced pervasive increase in tree mortality across Canada’s boreal forests. Nature Clim. Change 1, 467–471 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Bokhorst, S. F., Bjerke, J. W., Tømmervik, H., Callaghan, T. V. & Phoenix, G. K. Winter warming events damage sub-Arctic vegetation: Consistent evidence from an experimental manipulation and a natural event. J. Ecol. 97, 1408–1415 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Soja, A. J. et al. Climate-induced boreal forest change: Predictions versus current observations. Glob. Planet. Change 56, 274–296 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Smith, L. C., Sheng, Y., MacDonald, G. M. & Hinzman, L. D. Disappearing Arctic Lakes. Science 308, 1429–1429 (2005).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  20. Smol, J. P. & Douglas, M. S. V. Crossing the final ecological threshold in high Arctic ponds. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 104, 12395–12397 (2007).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  21. Callaghan, T. V., Christensen, T. R. & Jantze, E. J. Plant and vegetation dynamics on Disko Island, west Greenland: snapshots separated by over 40 years. Ambio 40, 624–637 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Klein, D. R. & Shulski, M. Lichen recovery following heavy grazing by reindeer delayed by climate warming. Ambio 38, 11–16 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Bulygina, O. N., Groisman, P. Y., Razuvaev, V. N. & Korshunova, N. N. Changes in snow cover characteristics over Northern Eurasia since 1966. Environ. Res. Lett. 6, 045204 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Euskirchen, E. S., McGuire, A. D. & Chapin, F. S. Energy feedbacks of northern high-latitude ecosystems to the climate system due to reduced snow cover during 20th century warming. Glob. Change Biol. 13, 2425–2438 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Chapin, F. S. et al. Role of land-surface changes in Arctic summer warming. Science 310, 657–660 (2005).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  26. Sturm, M. et al. Winter biological processes could help convert arctic tundra to shrubland. Bioscience 55, 17–26 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Toutoubalina, O. V. & Rees, W. G. Remote sensing of industrial impact on Arctic vegetation around Noril’sk, northern Siberia: Preliminary results. Int. J. Remote Sensing 20, 2979–2990 (1999).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Tømmervik, H. et al. Above ground biomass changes in the mountain birch forests and mountain heaths of Finnmarksvidda, northern Norway, in the period 1957–2006. Forest Ecol. Manage. 257, 244–257 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Olofsson, J., Tømmervik, H. & Callaghan, T. V. Vole and Lemming activity observed from space. Nature Clim. Change 2, 880–883 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. Riahi, K., Grübler, A. & Nakicenovic, N. Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental development under climate stabilization. Technol. For. Soc. Change 74, 887–935 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This work was financially supported by the NASA Earth Science Division. We thank CRU, NSIDC, NASA MODIS Project, CAVM team and the CMIP5 climate modelling groups (listed in Supplementary Table S7) for making their data available. The authors thank U. S. Bhatt, H. E. Epstein, G. R. North, M. K. Raynolds, A. R. Stine, G. Schmidt and D. A. Walker for their comments on various parts of this article.

Author information

Author notes

  1. L. Xu and R. B. Myneni: These authors contributed equally to this work

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts 02215, USA

    L. Xu, R. B. Myneni, Z. Zhu, J. Bi & B. T. Anderson

  2. Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska 99775, USA

    F. S. Chapin III & E. S. Euskirchen

  3. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, 104 05 Stockholm, PO Box 50005, Sweden

    T. V. Callaghan

  4. Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western Bank, Sheffield S10 2TN, UK

    T. V. Callaghan

  5. Biospheric Sciences Branch, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland 20771, USA

    J. E. Pinzon & C. J. Tucker

  6. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, 91191 Gif sur Yvette, Cedex, France

    P. Ciais

  7. Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Fram-High North Research Center for Climate and the Environment, N-9296 Tromsø, Norway

    H. Tømmervik

  8. Arctic Centre, University of Lapland, FI-96101 Rovaniemi, Finland

    B. C. Forbes

  9. Department of Ecology, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China

    S. L. Piao

  10. Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China

    S. L. Piao

  11. Bay Area Environmental Research Institute, NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, California 94035, USA

    S. Ganguly

  12. NASA Advanced Supercomputing Division, Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, California 94035, USA

    R. R. Nemani

  13. The Woods Hole Research Center, Woods Hole, Falmouth, Massachusetts 02540, USA

    S. J. Goetz & P. S. A. Beck

  14. Department of Environmental Sciences, Huxley College, Western Washington University, Bellingham, Washington 98225, USA

    A. G. Bunn

  15. State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China

    C. Cao

  16. School of Resource and Environment, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, Sichuan 611731, China

    C. Cao

  17. National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado 80309, USA

    J. C. Stroeve

Authors
  1. L. Xu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. R. B. Myneni
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. F. S. Chapin III
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. T. V. Callaghan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. J. E. Pinzon
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. C. J. Tucker
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. Z. Zhu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  8. J. Bi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  9. P. Ciais
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  10. H. Tømmervik
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  11. E. S. Euskirchen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  12. B. C. Forbes
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  13. S. L. Piao
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  14. B. T. Anderson
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  15. S. Ganguly
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  16. R. R. Nemani
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  17. S. J. Goetz
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  18. P. S. A. Beck
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  19. A. G. Bunn
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  20. C. Cao
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  21. J. C. Stroeve
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

The analysis was performed by X.L., R.B.M, Z.Z and J.B. All authors contributed with ideas, writing and discussions.

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to L. Xu or R. B. Myneni.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

Supplementary Information (PDF 12980 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Xu, L., Myneni, R., Chapin III, F. et al. Temperature and vegetation seasonality diminishment over northern lands. Nature Clim Change 3, 581–586 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1836

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1836

This article is cited by

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing