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Untangling the confusion around land carbon science and climate change mitigation policy

An Erratum to this article was published on 28 August 2013

This article has been updated

Abstract

Depletion of ecosystem carbon stocks is a significant source of atmospheric CO2 and reducing land-based emissions and maintaining land carbon stocks contributes to climate change mitigation. We summarize current understanding about human perturbation of the global carbon cycle, examine three scientific issues and consider implications for the interpretation of international climate change policy decisions, concluding that considering carbon storage on land as a means to 'offset' CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels (an idea with wide currency) is scientifically flawed. The capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to store carbon is finite and the current sequestration potential primarily reflects depletion due to past land use. Avoiding emissions from land carbon stocks and refilling depleted stocks reduces atmospheric CO2 concentration, but the maximum amount of this reduction is equivalent to only a small fraction of potential fossil fuel emissions.

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Figure 1: Changes in the primary stocks of the global carbon cycle.

Change history

  • 20 August 2013

    In the version of this Perspective originally published, in Table 2, section (c), the fossil fuel carbon emissions were incorrectly described in the Land and Ocean categories. This error has now been corrected in the HTML and PDF versions.

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Acknowledgements

Thanks to Clive Hilliker for technical assistance in finalizing the production of Fig. 1. We are also grateful for insightful comments from Pierre Friedlingstein on Fig. 1 calculations.

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Correspondence to Brendan Mackey.

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Mackey, B., Prentice, I., Steffen, W. et al. Untangling the confusion around land carbon science and climate change mitigation policy. Nature Clim Change 3, 552–557 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1804

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