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The challenge to keep global warming below 2 °C

Nature Climate Change volume 3, pages 4–6 (2013)Cite this article

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The latest carbon dioxide emissions continue to track the high end of emission scenarios, making it even less likely global warming will stay below 2 °C. A shift to a 2 °C pathway requires immediate significant and sustained global mitigation, with a probable reliance on net negative emissions in the longer term.

On-going climate negotiations have recognized a “significant gap” between the current trajectory of global greenhouse-gas emissions and the “likely chance of holding the increase in global average temperature below 2 °C or 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels”1. Here we compare recent trends in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil-fuel combustion, cement production and gas flaring with the primary emission scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Carbon dioxide emissions are the largest contributor to long-term climate change and thus provide a good baseline to assess progress and examine consequences. We find that current emission trends continue to track scenarios that lead to the highest temperature increases. Further delay in global mitigation makes it increasingly difficult to stay below 2 °C.

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Figure 1: Estimated CO2 emissions over the past three decades compared with the IS92, SRES and the RCPs.
Figure 2: Growth rates of historical and scenario CO2 emissions.

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Acknowledgements

This work is a collaborative effort of the Global Carbon Project, a joint project of the Earth System Science Partnership, to provide regular analyses of the main global carbon sources and sinks (http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/). G.P.P. and R.M.A were supported by the Norwegian Research Council (project 221355/E10). T.B. and the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) are supported by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research. C.L.Q. thanks the UK Natural Environment Research Council (project NE/103002X/1) and the European Commission (project FP7-283080) for support. J.G.C. and M.R.R. thank the Australian Climate Change Science Program for support.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO), PO Box 1128, Blindern, Oslo, 0550, Norway

    Glen P. Peters & Robbie M. Andrew

  2. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, 37831-4842, Tennessee, USA

    Tom Boden

  3. Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, GPO Box 3023, Canberra, Australia

    Josep G. Canadell & Michael R. Raupach

  4. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CAE – CNRS – UVSQ, Gif sur Yvette, 91191, France

    Philippe Ciais

  5. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK

    Corinne Le Quéré & Charlie Wilson

  6. Research Institute for Environment, Energy, and Economics, Appalachian State University, ASU Box 32067, Boone, 28608-2067, North Carolina, USA

    Gregg Marland

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  1. Glen P. Peters
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  7. Gregg Marland
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  8. Michael R. Raupach
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  9. Charlie Wilson
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Contributions

All authors contributed to the planning of the paper. G.P.P. led the work. G.M. and T.B. contributed the updated CO2 emission data. R.M.A. prepared the figures and associated analysis. G.P.P. did the 2012 emission estimate and the analysis of the historical reduction rates. All authors contributed to data interpretation and to the writing of the paper.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Glen P. Peters.

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Peters, G., Andrew, R., Boden, T. et al. The challenge to keep global warming below 2 °C. Nature Clim Change 3, 4–6 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1783

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