Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Article
  • Published:

Changes in South Pacific rainfall bands in a warming climate

Nature Climate Change volume 3, pages 417–423 (2013)Cite this article

Subjects

Abstract

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is the largest rainband in the Southern Hemisphere and provides most of the rainfall to southwest Pacific island nations. In spite of various modelling efforts, it remains uncertain how the SPCZ will respond to greenhouse warming. Using a hierarchy of climate models we show that the uncertainty of SPCZ rainfall projections in present-generation climate models can be explained as a result of two competing mechanisms. Higher tropical sea surface temperatures lead to an overall increase of atmospheric moisture and rainfall whereas weaker sea surface temperature gradients dynamically shift the SPCZ northeastward and promote summer drying in areas of the southwest Pacific. On the basis of a multi-model ensemble of 76 greenhouse warming experiments and for moderate tropical warming of 1–2 °C we estimate a 6% decrease of SPCZ rainfall with a multi-model uncertainty exceeding ±20%. For stronger tropical warming exceeding 3 °C, a tendency for a wetter SPCZ region is identified.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Buy this article

  • Purchase on Springer Link
  • Instant access to full article PDF
Buy now

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: CMIP5 twenty-first-century projections, inter-model variability, and twentieth-century biases during DJF.
Figure 2: Rainfall biases during DJF for atmospheric models forced with either twentieth-century SST observations or coupled model SST.
Figure 3: Projected rainfall anomalies during DJF for an atmospheric model forced with SSTs modified from either the CMIP3 A1B (left column) or 4×CO2 (right column) emissions scenario.
Figure 4: Illustration of two opposing mechanisms responsible for SPCZ rainfall response to projected twenty-first-century greenhouse warming.
Figure 5: Projected net moisture flux convergence in the SPCZ during DJF as a function of SST increase.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Vincent, D. G. The South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ): A review. Mon. Weath. Rev. 122, 1949–1970 (1994).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Kiladis, G. N., von Storch, H. & van Loon, H. Origin of the South Pacific convergence zone. J. Clim. 2, 1185–1195 (1989).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Widlansky, M. J., Webster, P. J. & Hoyos, C. D. On the location and orientation of the South Pacific Convergence Zone. Clim. Dynam. 36, 561–578 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Matthews, A. J. A multiscale framework for the origin and variability of the South Pacific Convergence Zone. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 138, 1165–1178 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Griffiths, G. M., Salinger, M. J. & Leleu, I. Trends in extreme daily rainfall across the South Pacific and relationship to the South Pacific Convergence Zone. Int. J. Climatol. 23, 847–869 (2003).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Lorrey, A., Dalu, G., Renwick, J., Diamond, H. & Gaetani, M. Reconstructing the South Pacific Convergence Zone position during the pre-satellite era: a La Niña case study. Mon. Weath. Rev. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00228.1 (2012).

  7. Seager, R. et al. Air–sea interaction and the seasonal cycle of the subtropical anticyclones. J. Clim. 16, 1948–1966 (2003).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Trenberth, K. E. The definition of El Niño. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 78, 2771–2777 (1997).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Folland, C. K., Renwick, J. A. & Salinger, M. J. Relative influences of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and ENSO on the South Pacific Convergence Zone. Geophys. Res. Lett. 29, 1643–1646 (2002).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Gill, A. Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 106, 447–462 (1980).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Fu, X. & Wang, B. The role of longwave radiation and boundary layer thermodynamics in forcing tropical surface winds. J. Clim. 12, 1049–1069 (1999).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Lindzen, R. S. & Nigam, S. On the role of sea-surface temperature-gradients in forcing low level winds and convergence in the tropics. J. Atmos. Sci. 44, 2418–2436 (1987).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Cai, W. et al. More extreme swings of the South Pacific Convergence Zone due to greenhouse warming. Nature 488, 365–369 (2012).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  14. Collins, M. et al. The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific ocean and El Niño. Nature Geosci. 3, 391–397 (2010).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  15. Ashok, K., Sabin, T. P., Swapna, P. & Murtugudde, R. G. Is a global warming signature emerging in the tropical Pacific? Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L02701 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Knutson, T. R. & Manabe, S. Time-mean response over the tropical Pacific to increased CO2 in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J. Clim. 8, 2181–2199 (1995).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Liu, S., Vavrus, S., He, F., Wen, N. & Zhong, Y. Rethinking tropical ocean response to global warming: The enhanced equatorial warming. J. Clim. 18, 4684–4700 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Meehl, G. A. et al. Response of the NCAR Climate System Model to increased CO2 and the role of physical processes. J. Clim. 13, 1879–1898 (2000).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Meehl, G. A. et al. in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (eds Solomon, S. et al.) Ch. 10 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007).

    Google Scholar 

  20. Xie, S-P. et al. Global warming pattern formation: Sea surface temperature and rainfall. J. Clim. 23, 966–986 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Brown, J. R., Moise, A. F. & Delange, F. P. Changes in the South Pacific Convergence Zone in IPCC AR4 future climate projections. Clim. Dynam. 39, 1–19 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Meehl, G. A. et al. The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset—A new era in climate change research. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 88, 1383–1394 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J. & Meehl, G. A. An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 93, 485–498 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Christensen, J. H. et al. in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (eds Solomon, S. et al.) Ch. 11 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007).

    Google Scholar 

  25. Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, Climate Change in the Pacific: Scientific Assessment and New Research. Volume 1: Regional Overview (2011).

  26. Timmermann, A., McGregor, S. & Jin, F. F. Wind effects on past and future regional sea level trends in the southern Indo-Pacific. J. Clim. 23, 4429–4437 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Lin, J-L. The double-ITCZ problem in IPCC AR4 coupled GCMs: Ocean–atmosphere feedback analysis. J. Clim. 20, 4497–4525 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Brown, J. R. et al. Evaluation of the South Pacific Convergence Zone in IPCC AR4 climate model simulations of the twentieth century. J. Clim. 24, 1565–1582 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Irving, D. B. et al. Evaluating global climate models for the Pacific island region. Clim. Res. 49, 169–187 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. Wittenberg, A., Rosati, A., Lau, N. & Ploshay, J. J. GFDL’s CM2 global climate models- Part 3: Tropical Pacific climate and ENSO. J. Clim. 19, 698–722 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Ashfaq, M., Skinner, C. B. & Diffenbaugh, N. S. Influence of SST biases on future climate change projections. Clim. Dynam. 36, 1303–1319 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Adler, R. F. et al. The version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979-present). J. Hydrometeorol. 4, 1147–1167 (2003).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  33. Collins, W. D. et al. Description of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM 3.0) NCAR/TN–464+STR (National Center for Atmospheric Research, 2004).

  34. Chou, C., Neelin, J. D., Chen, C-A. & Tu, J-Y. Evaluating the Rich-Get-Richer mechanism in tropical precipitation change under global warming. J. Clim. 22, 1982–2005 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  35. Manganello, J. V. & Huang, B. The influence of systematic errors in the Southeast Pacific on ENSO variability and prediction in a coupled GCM. Clim. Dynam. 32, 1015–1034 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  36. Molteni, F. Atmospheric simulations using a GCM with simplified physical parametrizations. I: Model climatology and variability in multi-decadal experiments. Clim. Dynam. 20, 175–191 (2003).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  37. Jha, B. & Kumar, A. A comparison of the atmospheric response to ENSO in coupled and uncoupled model simulations. Mon. Weath. Rev. 137, 479–487 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  38. Graham, N. E. & Barnett, T. P. Sea surface temperature, surface wind divergence, and convection over tropical oceans. Science 238, 657–659 (1987).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  39. Johnson, N. C. & Xie, S-P. Changes in the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection. Nature Geosci. 3, 842–845 (2010).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  40. Vincent, E. M. et al. Interannual variability of the South Pacific Convergence Zone and implications for tropical cyclone genesis. Clim. Dynam. 36, 1881–1896 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  41. Seager, R., Naik, N. & Vecchi, G. A. Thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms for large-scale changes in the hydrological cycle in response to global warming. J. Clim. 23, 4651–4668 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  42. Held, I. M. & Soden, B. J. Robust response of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J. Clim. 19, 5686–5699 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  43. Ma, J., Xie, S-P. & Kosaka, Y. Mechanisms for tropical tropospheric circulation change in response to global warming. J. Clim. 25, 2979–2994 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  44. Lintner, B. & Neelin, J. Eastern margin variability of the South Pacific Convergence Zone. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L16701 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  45. Takahashi, K. & Battisti, D. Processes controlling the mean tropical Pacific precipitation pattern. Part II: The SPCZ and the Southeast Pacific Dry Zone. J. Clim. 20, 5696–5706 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the Office of Science (BER) US Department of Energy, Grant DE-FG02-07ER64469, by the US National Science Foundation under grant 1049219 and by the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC). S.M. and M.H.E. were supported by the Australian Research Council. M.L. was supported by the Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement. W.C. was supported by the Australian Climate Change Science Program and the CSIRO Office of Chief Executive Science Leader programme. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modelling groups for producing and making available their model output. The KNMI Climate Explorer, Netherlands, provided CMIP data from their Web site at http://climexp.knmi.nl/. We acknowledge the International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Italy, for hosting an influential workshop on Hierarchical Modelling of Climate and providing the ICTP idealized atmospheric GCM.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 1680 East-West Road, Honolulu, Hawaii 96822, USA

    Matthew J. Widlansky, Axel Timmermann & Niklas Schneider

  2. Department of Oceanography, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 1000 Pope Road, Honolulu, Hawaii 96822, USA

    Axel Timmermann, Karl Stein & Niklas Schneider

  3. Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales 2052, Australia

    Shayne McGregor & Matthew H. England

  4. Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat: Expérimentation et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), IRD/UPMC/CNRS/MNHN, Paris 75252, France

    Matthieu Lengaigne

  5. CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research-Aspendale, 107-121 Station Street, Aspendale, Victoria 3195, Australia

    Wenju Cai

Authors
  1. Matthew J. Widlansky
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Axel Timmermann
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Karl Stein
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Shayne McGregor
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Niklas Schneider
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Matthew H. England
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. Matthieu Lengaigne
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  8. Wenju Cai
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

The paper was written by M.J.W., A.T. and K.S. Experiments were carried out by M.J.W., A.T., K.S. and S.M. All authors contributed to interpreting the results, improving the methodology and refining the paper.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Matthew J. Widlansky.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

Supplementary Information (PDF 2285 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Widlansky, M., Timmermann, A., Stein, K. et al. Changes in South Pacific rainfall bands in a warming climate. Nature Clim Change 3, 417–423 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1726

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1726

This article is cited by

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing Anthropocene

Sign up for the Nature Briefing: Anthropocene newsletter — what matters in anthropocene research, free to your inbox weekly.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing: Anthropocene