Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Letter
  • Published:

Increased greenhouse-gas intensity of rice production under future atmospheric conditions

Abstract

Increased atmospheric CO2 and rising temperatures are expected to affect rice yields and greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions from rice paddies1,2,3,4. This is important, because rice cultivation is one of the largest human-induced sources of the potent GHG methane5 (CH4) and rice is the world’s second-most produced staple crop6. The need for meeting a growing global food demand7 argues for assessing GHG emissions from croplands on the basis of yield rather than land area8,9,10, such that efforts to reduce GHG emissions take into consideration the consequences for food production. However, it is unclear whether or how the GHG intensity (that is, yield-scaled GHG emissions) of cropping systems will be affected by future atmospheric conditions. Here we show, using meta-analysis, that increased atmospheric CO2 (ranging from 550 to 743 ppmV) and warming (ranging from +0.8 °C to +6 °C) both increase the GHG intensity of rice cultivation. Increased atmospheric CO2 increased GHG intensity by 31.4%, because CH4 emissions are stimulated more than rice yields. Warming increased GHG intensity by 11.8% per 1 °C, largely owing to a decrease in yield. This analysis suggests that rising CO2 and warming will approximately double the GHG intensity of rice production by the end of the twenty-first century, stressing the need for management practices that optimize rice production while reducing its GHG intensity as the climate continues to change.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Rent or buy this article

Prices vary by article type

from$1.95

to$39.95

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: Results of a meta-analysis on the response of CH4 emissions, yield, yield-scaled CH4 emissions and root biomass from rice paddies to increased levels of atmospheric CO2 and warming.
Figure 2: Effects of warming on rice yield and yield-scaled CH4 emissions versus the control temperatures in warming experiments.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Van Groenigen, K. J., Osenberg, C. W. & Hungate, B. A. Increased soil emissions of potent greenhouse gases under increased atmospheric CO2 . Nature 475, 214–216 (2011).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  2. Lobell, D. B. & Field, C. B. Global scale climate—crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming. Environ. Res. Lett. 2, 014002 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Ainsworth, E. A. Rice production in a changing climate: A meta-analysis of responses to elevated carbon dioxide and elevated ozone concentration. Glob. Change Biol. 14, 1642–209 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Peng, S. et al. Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 101, 9971–9975 (2004).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  5. EPA Global Anthropogenic non-CO 2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions: 1990–2020, EPA 430-R-06-003 (United States Environmental Protection Agency, 2006).

  6. http://faostat.fao.org/site/567/default.aspx#ancor.

  7. Cassman, K. G., Dobermann, A., Walters, D. T. & Yang, H. Meeting cereal demand while protecting natural resources and improving environmental quality. Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour. 28, 315–358 (2003).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Van Groenigen, J. W., Velthof, G. L., Oenema, O., van Groenigen, K. J. & van Kessel, C. Towards an agronomic assessment of N2O emissions: A case study for arable crops. Eur. J. Soil Sci. 61, 903–913 (2010).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  9. Mosier, A. R., Halvorson, A. D., Reule, C.A. & Liu, X. J. J. Net global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity in irrigated cropping systems in northeastern Colorado. J. Environ. Qual. 35, 1584–1598 (2006).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  10. Grassini, P. & Cassman, K. G. High-yield maize with large net energy yield and small global warming intensity. Proc. Natl Acad. USA 109, 1074–1079 (2012).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  11. Smith, P. et al. in Climate Change 2007: Mitigation (eds Metz, B., Davidson, O. R., Bosch, P. R., Dave, R. & Meyer, L. A.) 497–540 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007).

    Google Scholar 

  12. Maclean, J. L., Dawe, D. C., Hardy, B. & Hettel, G. P. Rice Almanac: Source Book for the Most Important Economic Activity on Earth 3rd edn (CABI Publishing, 2002).

    Book  Google Scholar 

  13. Linquist, B., van Groenigen, K. J., Adviento-Borbe, M. A., Pittelkow, C. & van Kessel, C. An agronomic assessment of greenhouse gas emissions from major cereal crops. Glob. Change Biol. 18, 194–209 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Forster, P. et al. in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (eds Solomon, S. et al.) 129–234 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007).

    Google Scholar 

  15. Osenberg, C. W., Sarnelle, O., Cooper, S. D. & Holt, R. D. Resolving ecological questions through meta-analysis: Goals, metrics and models. Ecology 80, 1105–1117 (1999).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Meehl, G. A. et al. in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (eds Solomon, S. et al.) 747–845 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007).

    Google Scholar 

  17. Easterling, W. E. et al. in Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (eds Parry, M. L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P., van der Linden, P. J. & Hanson, C. A.) 273–313 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007).

    Google Scholar 

  18. Le Mer, J. & Roger, P. Production, oxidation, emission and consumption of methane by soils: A review. Eur. J. Soil Biol. 37, 25–50 (2001).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  19. Radmer, R. J. & Kok, B. Rate-temperature curves as an unambiguous indicator of biological activity in soil. Appl. Environ. Microb. 38, 224–228 (1979).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  20. Yao, H. & Conrad, R. Effect of temperature on reduction of iron and production of carbon dioxide and methane in anoxic wetland rice soils. Biol. Fert. Soils 32, 135–141 (2000).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  21. Matsui, T., Namuco, O. S., Ziska, L. H. & Horie, T. Effects of high temperature and CO2 concentration on spikelet sterility in indica rice. Field Crops Res. 51, 213–219 (1997).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Wassman, R. et al. Climate change affecting rice production: The physiological and agronomic basis for possible adaptation strategies. Adv. Agron. 101, 59–122 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Cheng, W., Yagi, K., Sakai, H. & Kobayashi, K. Effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations on CH4 and N2O emission from rice soil: An experiment in controlled-environment chambers. Biogeochemistry 77, 351–373 (2006).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  24. Li, C. et al. Modeling greenhouse gas emissions from rice-based production systems: Sensitivity and upscaling. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 18, GB1043 (2004).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Sheehy, J. E., Mitchell, P. L. & Ferrer, A. B. Decline in rice grain yields with temperature: Models and correlations can give different estimates. Field Crop. Res. 98, 151–156 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Yan, X., Yagi, K., Akiyama, H. & Akimoto, H. Statistical analysis of the major variables controlling methane emissions from rice fields. Glob. Change Biol. 11, 1131–1141 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Linquist, B., Adviento-Borbe, M. A., Pittelkow, C. & van Groenigen, K. J. Fertilizer management practices and greenhouse gas emissions from rice systems: A quantitative analysis and review of the literature. Field Crop. Res. 135, 10–21 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Beach, R. H. et al. Mitigation potential and costs for global agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. Agr. Econ. 38, 109–115 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Clarke, L. et al. International climate policy architectures: Overview of the EMF 22 International Scenarios. Energ. Econ. 31, S64–S81 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. Von Caemmerer, S., Quick, W. P. & Furbank, R. T. The development of C4 rice: Current progress and future challenges. Science 336, 1671–1672 (2012).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  31. Hedges, L. V., Gurevitch, J. & Curtis, P. S. The meta-analysis of response ratios in experimental ecology. Ecology 80, 1150–1156 (1999).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Hungate, B. A. et al. Assessing the effect of elevated CO2 on soil carbon: A comparison of four meta-analyses. Glob. Change Biol. 15, 2020–2034 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  33. Rosenberg, M. S., Adams, D. C. & Gurevitch, J. METAWIN, Statistical Software for Meta-Analysis (Sinauer, Sunderland, MA), Version 2 (2000).

Download references

Acknowledgements

Many thanks to C. Osenberg for advice on the statistical analysis and for valuable feedback on earlier versions of this manuscript. We thank W. Cheng for sharing unpublished data with us. Financial support for this study was provided by the US National Science Foundation Division of Environmental Biology (DEB-0949460), the US Department of Energy’s Office of Science (BER) through the Western Regional Center of the National Institute for Climatic Change Research at Northern Arizona University, and the Irish Research Council co-funded by Marie Curie Actions under FP7.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Contributions

K.J.v.G. designed the investigation. K.J.v.G. and C.v.K extracted the data from the literature. K.J.v.G. and B.A.H. performed the statistical analyses. All authors contributed to the writing of the manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Kees Jan van Groenigen.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

Supplementary Information (PDF 366 kb)

Supplementary Data Set 1

Supplementary Data Set 1 (XLSX 25 kb)

Supplementary Data Set 2

Supplementary Data Set 2 (XLSX 46 kb)

Supplementary Data Set 3

Supplementary Data Set 3 (XLSX 58 kb)

Supplementary Data Set 4

Supplementary Data Set 4 (XLSX 68 kb)

Supplementary Data Set 5

Supplementary Data Set 5 (XLSX 93 kb)

Supplementary Data Set 6

Supplementary Data Set 6 (XLSX 18 kb)

Supplementary Data Set 7

Supplementary Data Set 7 (XLSX 67 kb)

Supplementary Data Set 8

Supplementary Data Set 8 (XLSX 71 kb)

Supplementary Data Set 9

Supplementary Data Set 9 (XLSX 55 kb)

Supplementary Data Set 10

Supplementary Data Set 10 (XLSX 45 kb)

Supplementary Data Set 11

Supplementary Data Set 11 (XLSX 12 kb)

Supplementary Data Set 12

Supplementary Data Set 12 (XLSX 39 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

van Groenigen, K., van Kessel, C. & Hungate, B. Increased greenhouse-gas intensity of rice production under future atmospheric conditions. Nature Clim Change 3, 288–291 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1712

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1712

This article is cited by

Search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing