Ecology http://doi.org/h26 (2012)
Seasonally earlier life-history events such as leaf and flowering dates are being observed in many plant species, and these are often used as evidence that species are already responding to the rising temperatures associated with anthropogenic climate change. However, there is great variability among species in their phenological sensitivity to temperature, and these differences may be indicative of species' performance under climate change.
Elsa Cleland from the Ecology Behaviour and Evolution Section of the University of California San Diego, US, and co-workers, test this hypothesis by synthesizing results across a number of terrestrial warming experiments where measures of species performance (such as biomass, percentage cover and number of flowers) are available.
Results indicate that in species whose phenology is advanced with warming their performance also increased, and vice versa. This suggests that species that cannot phenologically 'track' climate may be at increased risk, and that phenological monitoring could provide an important tool for setting future conservation priorities.
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Brown, A. Tracking plant performance. Nature Clim Change 2, 570 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1648
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1648
