Abstract
Mitigating climate change requires directed innovation efforts to develop and deploy energy technologies. Innovation activities are directed towards the outcome of climate protection by public institutions, policies and resources that in turn shape market behaviour. We analyse diverse indicators of activity throughout the innovation system to assess these efforts. We find efficient end-use technologies contribute large potential emission reductions and provide higher social returns on investment than energy-supply technologies. Yet public institutions, policies and financial resources pervasively privilege energy-supply technologies. Directed innovation efforts are strikingly misaligned with the needs of an emissions-constrained world. Significantly greater effort is needed to develop the full potential of efficient end-use technologies.
This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution
Relevant articles
Open Access articles citing this article.
-
Pricing indirect emissions accelerates low—carbon transition of US light vehicle sector
Nature Communications Open Access 08 December 2021
-
The incandescent light bulb phase-out: exploring patterns of framing the governance of discontinuing a socio-technical regime
Energy, Sustainability and Society Open Access 29 April 2021
-
Coupling a Detailed Transport Model to the Integrated Assessment Model REMIND
Environmental Modeling & Assessment Open Access 30 March 2021
Access options
Subscribe to this journal
Receive 12 print issues and online access
$209.00 per year
only $17.42 per issue
Rent or buy this article
Prices vary by article type
from$1.95
to$39.95
Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout



References
Department of Energy Quadrennial Technology Review (DOE, 2011).
European Commission COM 4900. Work Programme 2011. Cooperation. Theme 5: Energy (EC, 2010).
Gallagher, K. S., Anadon, L. D., Kempener, R. & Wilson, C. Trends in investments in global energy research, development, and demonstration. WIRes Clim. Change 2, 373–427 (2011).
Riahi, K., Grubler, A. & Nakicenovic, N. Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental development under climate stabilization. Technol. Forecast.Soc. 74, 887–935 (2007).
International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook (IEA, 2011).
Hoffert, M. I. Farewell to Fossil Fuels? Science 329, 1292–1294 (2010).
Hoffert, M. I. et al. Advanced technology paths to global climate stability: energy for a greenhouse planet. Science 298, 981–987 (2002).
Myhrvold, N. P. & Caldeira, K. Greenhouse gases, climate change and the transition from coal to low-carbon electricity. Environ. Res. Lett. 7, 014019 (2012).
Sathaye, J. et al. Opportunities to change development pathways toward lower greenhouse gas emissions through energy efficiency. Energy Efficiency 2, 317–337 (2009).
Ürge-Vorsatz, D. & Metz, B. Energy efficiency: how far does it get us in controlling climate change? Energy Efficiency 2, 87–94 (2009).
Grubler, A. et al. in Global Energy Assessment (eds Johansson, T. B., Nakicenovic, N., Patwardhan, A. & Gomez-Echeverri, L.) Ch. 24 (Cambridge University Press, 2012).
Heymann, M. Signs of Hubris: The shaping of wind technology styles in Germany, Denmark, and the United States, 1940–1990 Tech. Cult. 39, 641–670 (1998).
Verbong, G. & Geels, F. The ongoing energy transition: Lessons from a socio-technical, multi-level analysis of the Dutch electricity system (1960–2004). Energy Policy 35, 1025–1037 (2007).
Astrand, K. & Neij, L. An assessment of governmental wind power programmes in Sweden–using a systems approach. Energy Policy 34, 277–296 (2006).
Garud, R. & Karnoe, P. Bricolage versus breakthrough: Distributed and embedded agency in technology entrepreneurship. Res. Pol. 32, 277–300 (2003).
Kamp, L., Smits, R. & Andriesse, C. Notions on learning applied to wind turbine development in the Netherlands and Denmark. Energy Policy 32, 1625–1637 (2003).
Van den Wall Bake, J. D., Junginger, M., Faaij, A., Poot, T. & Walter, A. Explaining the experience curve: Cost reductions of Brazilian ethanol from sugarcane. Biomass Bioenergy 33, 644–658 (2009).
Deutch, J. M. & Lester, R. K. Making Technology Work: Applications in Energy and the Environment (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2004).
Bush, V. Science: the Endless Frontier (US Government Printing Office, 1945).
Mowery, D. & Rosenberg, N. The influence of market demand upon innovation: A critical review of some recent empirical studies. Res. Pol. 8, 102–153 (1979).
Freeman, C. Economics of technical change: A critical review. Cambridge J. Econ. 18, 463–514 (1994).
Schot, J. & Geels, F. W. Strategic niche management and sustainable innovation journeys: theory, findings, research agenda, and policy. Technol. Anal. Strateg. 20, 537–554 (2008).
Nemet, G. F. Demand-pull, technology-push, and government-led incentives for non-incremental technical change. Res. Pol. 38, 700–709 (2009).
Lundvall, B.-A. Why study national systems and national styles of innovation? Technol. Anal. Strateg. 10, 407–421 (1998).
Nelson, R. R. & Winter, S. G. In search of useful theory of innovation. Res. Pol. 6, 36–76 (1977).
Edquist, C. & Johnson, B. in Systems of Innovation (ed. C. Edquist) 41–63 (Pinter, 1997).
Hekkert, M. P., Suurs, R. A. A., Negro, S. O., Kuhlmann, S. & Smits, R. E. H. M. Functions of innovation systems: A new approach for analysing technological change. Technol. Forecast. Soc 74, 413–432 (2007).
Alkemade, F. & Suurs, R. A. A. Patterns of expectations for emerging sustainable technologies. Technol. Forecast. Soc. 79, 448–456 (2012).
Jacobsson, S. & Lauber, V. The politics and policy of energy system transformation—explaining the German diffusion of renewable energy technology. Energy Policy 34, 256–276 (2006).
Carlsson, B. & Stankiewicz, R. On the nature, function and composition of technological systems. J. Evol. Econ. 1, 93–118 (1991).
Rogers, E. M. Diffusion of Innovations (Free Press, 2003).
Fouquet, R. The slow search for solutions: Lessons from historical energy transitions by sector and service. Energy Policy 38, 6586–6596 (2010).
Geels, F. W. From sectoral systems of innvation to socio-technical systems: Insights about dynamics and change from sociology and institutional theory. Res. Pol. 33, 897–920 (2004).
Freeman, C. & Soete, L. The Economics of Industrial Innovation 3rd edn (MIT Press, 2000).
Joint report by IEA, OPEC, OECD and World Bank on fossil-fuel and other energy subsidies: An update of the G20 Pittsburgh and Toronto Commitments (2011).
Weiss, M., Junginger, M., Patel, M. K. & Blok, K. A review of experience curve analyses for energy demand technologies. Technol. Forecast. Soc. 77, 411–428 (2010).
Wene, C.-O. Experience Curves for Energy Technology Policy (Internationl Energy Agency, 2000).
Griliches, Z. R&D and productivity: Measurement issues and econometric results. Science 237, 31–35 (1987).
European Commission SEC 1295. Commission Staff Working Document. A Technology Roadmap for the Communication on Investing in the Development of Low Carbon Technologies (EC, 2009).
National Research Council Energy Research at DoE: Was it Worth It? Energy Efficiency and Fossil Energy Research 1978–2000 (NRC, 2001).
National Research Council Prospective Evaluation of Applied Energy Research and Development at DoE (Phase Two) (NRC, 2007).
Fri, R. W. The Role of knowledge: Technological innovation in the energy system. Energy J. 24, 51–74 (2003).
Van Vuuren, D. et al. Comparison of top-down and bottom-up estimates of sectoral and regional greenhouse gas emission reduction potentials. Energy Policy 37, 5125–5139 (2009).
Luderer, G. et al. The Economics of Decarbonization — Results from the RECIPE Model Intercomparison (Potsdam Institute, 2009).
Edenhofer, O. et al. The Economics of low stabilization: Model comparison of mitigation strategies and costs. Energy J. 31, 11–48 (2010).
Pacala, S. & Socolow, R. Stabilisation wedges: Solving the climate problem for the next 50 years with current technologies. Science 305, 968–972 (2004).
Grubler, A. & Riahi, K. Do governments have the right mix in their energy R&D portfolios? Carbon Manag. 1, 79–87 (2010).
Fisher, B. S. et al. in IPCC Climate Change 2007: Mitigation (eds Metz, B. et al.) 169–251 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007).
Hanaoka, T., Kainuma, M. & Matsuoka, Y. The role of energy intensity improvement in the AR4 GHG stabilization scenarios. Energy Efficiency 2, 95–108 (2009).
Amann, M. et al. Potential and Costs for Greenhouse Gas Mitigation in Annex 1 Countries: Initial Results of the GAINS Mode. (IIASA, 2009).
Murphy, R. & Jaccard, M. Energy efficiency and the cost of GHG abatement: A comparison of bottom-up and hybrid models for the US. Energy Policy, 39, 7146–7155 (2011).
McCollum, D., Krey, V. & Riahi, K. An integrated approach to energy sustainability. Nature Clim. Change 1, 428–429 (2011).
Levine, M. et al. in IPCC Climate Change 2007: Mitigation (eds Metz, B. et al.) 387–447 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007).
Lutsey, N. & Sperling, D. Energy efficiency, fuel economy, and policy implications. Transp. Res. Rec. 1941, 8–17 (2005).
D'Agostino, A. L. et al. What's the state of energy studies research?: A content analysis of three leading journals from 1999 to 2008. Energy 36, 508–519 (2011).
Nakicenovic, N. & Rogner, H. H. Financing global energy perspectives to 2050. OPEC Rev. 20, 1–23 (1996).
Norgard, J. S. & Christensen, B. L. Towards sustainable energy welfare. Persp. Energy 2, 313–332 (1993).
Shenhua reaps huge profits from CTL project. China daily (16 May 2011); available at http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2011-05/16/content_12515142.htm
Lynas, M. Conflicted roles over renewables. Nature Clim. Change 1, 228–229 (2011).
Edenhofer, O. Different views ensure IPCC balance. Nature Clim. Change 1, 229–230 (2011).
Edenhofer, O. et al. IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2011).
Teske, S. et al. Energy [R]evolution 2010: A sustainable world energy outlook. Energy Efficiency 4, 409–433 (2011).
Unruh, G. Understanding carbon lock-in. Energy Policy 28, 817–830 (2000).
Moe, E. Energy, industry and politics: Energy, vested interests, and long-term economic growth and development. Energy 35, 1730–1740 (2010).
Koomey, J. G. Cold Cash, Cool Climate, Science Based Advice for Ecological Entrepreneurs 157–160 (Analytics, 2012).
Sovacool, B. K. Rejecting renewables: The socio-technical impediments to renewable electricity in the United States. Energy Policy 37, 4500–4513 (2009).
International Energy Agency Energy Technology RD&D 2009 edn. (IEA, 2009).
Dosi, G. Technological Paradigms and Technological Trajectories: A suggested interpretation of the determinants and directions of technical change. Res. Pol. 11, 147–162 (1982).
Galiana, I. & Green, C. Let the global technology race begin. Nature 462, 570–571 (2009).
Meadowcroft, J. What about the politics? Sustainable development, transition management, and long term energy transitions. Pol. Sci. 42, 323–340 (2009).
Sandén, B. A. & Azar, C. Near-term technology policies for long-term climate targets: Economy wide versus technology specific approaches. Energy Policy 33, 1557–1576 (2005).
Torvanger, A. & Meadowcroft, J. The political economy of technology support: Making decisions about carbon capture and storage and low carbon energy technologies. Global Environ. Chang. 21, 303–312 (2011).
Lovins, A. et al. Small is Profitable: The Hidden Economic Benefits of Making Electrical Resources the Right Size (Rocky Mountain Institute, 2003).
Gallagher, K. S., Holdren, J. P. & Sagar, A. D. Energy-technology innovation. Annu. Rev. Env.Resour. 31, 193–237 (2006).
Hekkert, M. P. & Negro, S. O. Functions of innovation systems as a framework to understand sustainable technological change: Empirical evidence for earlier claims. Technol. Forecast. Soc. 76, 584–594 (2009).
Bergek, A., Jacobsson, S., Carlsson, B., Lindmark, S. & Rickne, A. Analyzing the functional dynamics of technological innovation systems: A scheme of analysis. Res. Pol. 37, 407–429 (2008).
Archibugi, D. & Coco, A. Measuring technological capabilities at the country level: A survey and a menu for choice. Res. Pol. 34, 175–194 (2005).
Hughes, N. & Strachan, N. Methodological review of UK and international low carbon scenarios. Energy Policy 38, 6056–6065 (2010).
Kitous, A., Criqui, P., Bellevrat, E. & Chateau, B. Transformation patterns of the worldwide energy system — Scenarios for the century with the POLES model. Energy J. 31, 49–82 (2010).
Riahi, K. et al. Energy Pathways for Sustainable Development. The Global Energy Assessment (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2012).
HMG 2050 Pathways Analysis (HM Government, 2010).
Nemet, G. F. Interim monitoring of cost dynamics for publicly supported energy technologies. Energy Policy 37, 825–835 (2009).
European Commission Investing in the development of low carbon technologies (SET-Plan) COM(2009). 519 final (EC, 2009).
European Commission SEC 1296. R&D Investment in the Priority Technologies of the European Strategic Energy Technology Plan. Commission Staff Working Document. Accompanying Document to The Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, The Council, The European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions On Investing in the Development of Low Carbon Technologies (SET-Plan) (EC, 2009).
Department of Energy Quadrennial Technology Review Volume II (US DoE, 2011).
President's Committee of Advisors on Science & Technology Accelerating the Pace of Change in Energy Technologies (PCAST, 2010).
Marlay, R. US–China Clean Energy Research Center Overview (CERC, 2010); Available at www.us-china-cerc.org
International Energy Agency Energy Technology Initiatives (IEA, 2010) Updated with data available at www.iea.org/techno/index.asp [Accessed Oct-2011].
ARPA-E Project Database. Accessed October 2011. (DoE, 2011); available at arpa-e.energy.gov/ProgramsProjects/ViewAllProjects.aspx
RCUK Energy Programme What We're Funding. http://www.rcuk.ac.uk/research/xrcprogrammes/energy/EnergyResearch/Pages/home.aspx
Greenwood, C., Usher, E. & Sonntag-O-Brien, V. (eds) Global Trends in Sustainable Energy Investment 2009: Analysis of Trends and Issues in the Financing of Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency (UNEP, 2009).
International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook (IEA, 2008).
International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook (IEA, 2009).
Wilson, C. & Grubler, A. A Comparative Analysis of Annual Market Investments in Energy Supply and End-Use Technologies (IIASA, 2011).
Grubler, A. in The Encyclopedia of Earth (ed. Cleveland, C. J.) (Environmental Information Coalition, National Council for Science and the Environment, 2008); available at http://www.eoearth.org/article/Energy_transitions
Abernathy, W. J. & Wayne, K. Limits of the learning curve. Harvard Business Review 52, 109–119 (1974).
Colpier, U. C. & Cornland, D. The economics of the combined cycle gas turbine — an experience curve analysis. Energy Policy 30, 309–316 (2002).
Department of Energy Forecast of Equipment Price Trends for Central Air Conditioners, Heat Pumps and Furnaces Appendix 8-J (US DoE, 2011).
Grubler, A. The costs of the French nuclear scale-up: A case of negative learning by doing. Energy Policy 38, 5174–5188 (2010).
Irwin, D. A. & Klenow, P. J. Learning-by-doing spillovers in the semiconductor industry. J. Polit. Econ. 102, 1200–1227 (1994).
Iwafune, Y. Technology Progress Dynamics of Compact Fluorescent Lamps. IR-00-009 (IIASA, 2000).
Joskow, P. L. & Rose, N. L. The effects of technological change, experience, and environmental regulation on the construction cost of coal-burning generating units. RAND J. Econ. 16, 1–27 (1985).
Kiss, B., Neij, L. & Jakob, M. in Global Energy Assessment (eds Johansson, T. B., Nakicenovic, N., Patwardhan, A. & Gomez-Echeverri, L.) Ch. 24 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2012).
Maycock, P. D. & Wakefield, G. F. Business Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic Energy Conversion (Texas Instruments, 1975).
McDonald, A. & Schrattenholzer, L. Learning rates for energy technologies. Energy Policy 29, 255–261 (2001).
Nemet, G. F. Subsidies for new technologies and knowledge spillovers from learning by doing. J. Policy Anal. Manag. 31, 601–622 (2012).
Rubin, E. S., Yeh, S., Antes, M., Berkenpas, M. & Davison, J. Use of experience curves to estimate the future cost of power plants with CO2 capture. Int. J. Greenh. Gas Con. 1, 188–197 (2007).
Acknowledgements
We acknowledge the many useful discussions with our fellow authors of the Global Energy Assessment chapter on the Energy Technology Innovation System11: Francisco Aguayo, Leon Clarke, Laura Diaz Anadon, Marko Hekkert, Kejun Jiang, Daniel Kammen, Ruud Kempener, Osamu Kimura, Bernadette Kiss, Lynn Mytelka, Lena Neij and Anastasia O'Rourke.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
All authors contributed to the intellectual content. C.W. and A.G. led the data collection and drafting of the text with contributions from K.S.G. and G.N. All authors reviewed and edited the text.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing financial interests.
Supplementary information
Supplementary Information
Supplementary Information (PDF 212 kb)
Supplementary Information
Supplementary Information (XLSX 176 kb)
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Wilson, C., Grubler, A., Gallagher, K. et al. Marginalization of end-use technologies in energy innovation for climate protection. Nature Clim Change 2, 780–788 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1576
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1576
This article is cited by
-
The incandescent light bulb phase-out: exploring patterns of framing the governance of discontinuing a socio-technical regime
Energy, Sustainability and Society (2021)
-
Pricing indirect emissions accelerates low—carbon transition of US light vehicle sector
Nature Communications (2021)
-
Impact of declining renewable energy costs on electrification in low-emission scenarios
Nature Energy (2021)
-
Electricity end-use and construction activity are key leverage points for co-controlling greenhouse gases and local pollution in China
Climatic Change (2021)
-
Identifying the technological knowledge depreciation rate using patent citation data: a case study of the solar photovoltaic industry
Scientometrics (2021)