Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Letter
  • Published:

Eurasian Arctic greening reveals teleconnections and the potential for structurally novel ecosystems

Abstract

Arctic warming has been linked to observed increases in tundra shrub cover and growth in recent decades1,2,3 on the basis of significant relationships between deciduous shrub growth/biomass and temperature3,4,5,6,7. These vegetation trends have been linked to Arctic sea-ice decline5 and thus to the sea-ice/albedo feedback known as Arctic amplification8. However, the interactions between climate, sea ice and tundra vegetation remain poorly understood. Here we reveal a 50-year growth response over a >100,000 km2 area to a rise in summer temperature for alder (Alnus) and willow (Salix), the most abundant shrub genera respectively at and north of the continental treeline. We demonstrate that whereas plant productivity is related to sea ice in late spring, the growing season peak responds to persistent synoptic-scale air masses over West Siberia associated with Fennoscandian weather systems through the Rossby wave train. Substrate is important for biomass accumulation, yet a strong correlation between growth and temperature encompasses all observed soil types. Vegetation is especially responsive to temperature in early summer. These results have significant implications for modelling present and future Low Arctic vegetation responses to climate change, and emphasize the potential for structurally novel ecosystems to emerge from within the tundra zone.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Rent or buy this article

Prices vary by article type

from$1.95

to$39.95

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: Map of NWET.
Figure 2: Pearson correlation coefficients between sea-ice extent, NDVI (ref. 11) and surface temperatures.
Figure 3: Monthly Pearson correlation coefficients (r) between NDVI (ref. 11) and Laborovaya (S. lanata) shrub ring-width chronology.
Figure 4: Pearson correlation coefficients between deciduous shrub ring-width chronologies, surface temperatures and the SCA index.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Goetz, S. J., Bunn, A. G., Fiske, G. J. & Houghton, R. A. Satellite-observed photosynthetic trends across boreal North America associated with climate and fire disturbance. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 102, 13521–13525 (2005).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  2. Sturm, M., Racine, C. & Tape, K. Climate change—increasing shrub abundance in the Arctic. Nature 411, 546–547 (2001).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  3. Elmendorf, S. C. et al. Plot-scale evidence of tundra vegetation change and links to recent summer warming. Nature Clim. Change 2, 453–457 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Epstein, H. E., Walker, D. A., Raynolds, M. K., Jia, G. J. & Kelley, A. M. Phytomass patterns across a temperature gradient of the North American Arctic tundra. J. Geophys. Res. 113, G03S02 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Bhatt, U. S. et al. Circumpolar Arctic tundra vegetation change is linked to sea ice decline. Earth Inter. 14, 1–20 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Forbes, B. C., Macias Fauria, M. & Zetterberg, P. Russian Arctic warming and ‘greening’ are closely tracked by tundra shrub willows. Glob. Change Biol. 16, 1542–1554 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Walker, M. D. et al. Plant community responses to experimental warming across the tundra biome. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 103, 1342–1346 (2006).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  8. Serreze, M. C. & Barry, R. G. Processes and impacts of Arctic amplification: A research synthesis. Glob. Planet. Change 77, 85–96 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Raynolds, M. K., Comiso, J. C., Walker, D. A. & Verbyla, D. Relationship between satellite-derived land surface temperatures, arctic vegetation types, and NDVI. Remote Sens. Environ. 112, 1884–1894 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Bengtsson, L., Semenov, V. A. & Johannessen, O. M. The early twentieth-century warming in the Arctic—a possible mechanism. J. Clim. 17, 4045–4057 (2004).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Tucker, C. J. et al. An extended AVHRR 8-km NDVI dataset compatible with MODIS and SPOT vegetation NDVI data. Int. J. Remote Sens. 26, 4485–4498 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Walker, D. A. et al. The circumpolar arctic vegetation map. J. Vegetation Sci. 16, 267–282 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Raynolds, M. K., Walker, D. A. & Maier, H. A. NDVI patterns and phytomass distribution in the circumpolar Arctic. Remote Sens. Environ. 102, 271–281 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Forbes, B. C. & Stammler, F. Arctic climate change discourse: The contrasting politics of research agendas in the West and Russia. Polar Res. 28, 28–42 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Forbes, B. C. et al. High resilience in the Yamal–Nenets social-ecological system, West Siberian Arctic, Russia. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 106, 22041–22048 (2009).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  16. Barnston, A. G. & Livezey, R. E. Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns. Mon. Weath. Rev. 115, 1083–1126 (1987).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Bueh, C. & Nakamura, H. Scandinavian pattern and its climatic impact. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 133, 2117–2131 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Walker, D. A. et al. Spatial and temporal patterns of greenness on the Yamal Peninsula, Russia: Interactions of ecological and social factors affecting the Arctic normalized difference vegetation index. Environ. Res. Lett. 4, 045004 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Drozdov, D. S. et al. Electronic atlas of the Russian Arctic coastal zone. Geo-Mar. Lett. 25, 81–88 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Arft, A. M. et al. Responses of tundra plants to experimental warming: Meta-analysis of the international tundra experiment. Ecol. Monogr. 69, 491–511 (1999).

    Google Scholar 

  21. Howe, G. T. et al. From genotype to phenotype: Unraveling the complexities of cold adaptation in forest trees. Can. J. Botany 81, 1247–1266 (2003).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  22. Bulygina, O. N., Razuvaev, V. N. & Korshunova, N. N. Changes in snow cover over Northern Eurasia in the last few decades. Environ. Res. Lett. 4, 045026 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Brown, R., Derksen, C. & Wang, L. A multi-data set analysis of variability and change in Arctic spring snow cover extent, 1967–2008. J. Geophys. Res. 115, D16111 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Göttel, H. et al. Influence of changed vegetations fields on regional climate simulations in the Barents Sea Region. Climatic Change 87, 35–50 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Leibman, M. O. Cryogenic landslides on the Yamal Peninsula, Russia: Preliminary observations. Permafrost Periglac. Process. 6, 259–264 (1995).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Shiyatov, S. G., Terent’ev, M. M. & Fomin, V. V. Spatiotemporal dynamics of forest–tundra communities in the Polar Urals. Russian J. Ecol. 36, 69–75 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Tape, K., Sturm, M. & Racine, C. The evidence for shrub expansion in Northern Alaska and the Pan-Arctic. Glob. Change Biol. 12, 686–702 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Edwards, M. E., Brubaker, L. B., Lozhkin, A. V. & Anderson, P. M. Structurally novel biomes: A response to past warming in Beringia. Ecology 86, 1696–1703 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. MacDonald, G. M., Kremenetski, K. V. & Beilman, D. W. Climate change and the northern Russian treeline zone. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 363, 2283–2299 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. Payette, S., Eronen, M. & Jasinski, J. J. P. The circumboreal tundra-taiga interface: Late pleistocene and holocene changes. Ambio Spec. 12, 15–22 (2002).

    Google Scholar 

  31. Hantemirov, R. M. & Shiyatov, S. G. A continuous multimillennial ring-width chronology in Yamal, northwestern Siberia. Holocene 12, 717–726 (2002).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Kaplan, J. O. et al. Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections. J. Geophys. Res. 108, 8171 (2003).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  33. Kalnay, E. et al. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 77, 437–471 (1996).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  34. Cook, E. R. & Kairiukstis, L. A. 408 (Springer, 1990).

  35. Biondi, F. & Waikul, K. DENDROCLIM2002: A C++ program for statistical calibration of climate signals in tree-ring chronologies. Comput. Geosci. 30, 303–311 (2004).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  36. Livezey, R. E. & Chen, W. Y. Statistical field significance and its determination by Monte Carlo techniques. Month. Weath. Rev. 111, 46–59 (1983).

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The overall work was supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (grants NNG6GE00A and NNX09AK56G), the Northern Eurasian Earth Science Partnership Initiative, the Academy of Finland’s Russia in Flux programme through the ENSINOR project (decision 208147), the National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs (grant 0531200) and the Nordic Centre of Excellence—TUNDRA. M.M-F. was financially supported by a Marie Curie Research Fellowship during the completion of this study (Grant Agreement Number 254206, project ECOCHANGE: Creating conditions for persistence of biodiversity in the face of climate change).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Contributions

M.M-F. performed the statistical analysis, wrote the manuscript and created the figures. B.C.F. designed and performed the field expeditions and sampling, supervised the project and collaborated in writing the manuscript. P.Z. dated and measured the ring-width chronologies. T.K. performed fieldwork (ground truthing of satellite imagery) and laboratory remote-sensing analyses.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Bruce C. Forbes.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Supplementary information

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Macias-Fauria, M., Forbes, B., Zetterberg, P. et al. Eurasian Arctic greening reveals teleconnections and the potential for structurally novel ecosystems. Nature Clim Change 2, 613–618 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1558

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1558

This article is cited by

Search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing