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Meteorology

Arctic warming favours extremes

Nature Climate Change volume 2, pages 315–316 (2012)Cite this article

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The twenty-first century was marked by a number of extreme weather events over northern continents. Amplified warming in the Arctic region and associated changes in atmospheric dynamics may provide a clue for understanding the origin of these recent extremes.

It is extreme weather events, rather than mean climate change, that most painfully impact society. In some regions, there has been a tendency for an increase in the frequency and magnitude of weather extremes that is consistent with global warming processes1. The first decade of the twenty-first century — the warmest in global and hemispheric instrumental temperature records — was marked by a number of severe extreme weather events over the densely populated northern continents. European summer heatwaves in 2003, 2010 and 2011 are consistent with the warming and increase in variability projected by climate models under anthropogenic climate change scenarios2. However, harsh cold spells over large areas of northern continents in the winters of 2003, 2006 and 2010, and the most recent one in January–February 2012 seem unexpected in light of the amplified winter warming in mid- and high latitudes that was observed in the last three decades of the twentieth century. Whether these events represent random weather fluctuations or are linked to the changing climate remains uncertain. Now in Geophysical Research Letters, Jennifer Francis and Stephen Vavrus3 provide a new view on the increased frequency and magnitude of weather extremes. They suggest that both summer and winter extremes could be linked to changes in atmospheric wave dynamics caused by Arctic amplification of global warming.

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Figure 1: Recent changes in the atmospheric wave pattern in the Atlantic sector.

References

  1. IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (eds Field, C. B. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2012).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Vladimir A. Semenov is in the Helmholtz Center for Ocean Research Kiel (GEOMAR), Düsternbrooker Weg 20, 24105 Kiel, Germany, and the A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS, Pyzhevsky 3, 119017 Moscow, Russia,

    Vladimir A. Semenov

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  1. Vladimir A. Semenov
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Correspondence to Vladimir A. Semenov.

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Semenov, V. Arctic warming favours extremes. Nature Clim Change 2, 315–316 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1502

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