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Vulnerability of cloud forest reserves in Mexico to climate change

Nature Climate Change volume 2, pages 448452 (2012) | Download Citation


Tropical montane cloud forests are among the most vulnerable terrestrial ecosystems to climate change1,2,3 owing to their restricted climatic requirements and their narrow and fragmented distribution4. Although 12% of Mexican cloud forest is protected, it is not known whether reserves will ensure the persistence of the ecosystem and its endemic species under climate change. Here, we show that 68% of Mexico’s cloud forest could vanish by 2080 because of climate change and more than 90% of cloud forest that is protected at present will not be climatically suitable for that ecosystem in 2080. Moreover, if we assume unprotected forests are cleared, 99% of the entire ecosystem could be lost through a combination of climate change and habitat loss, resulting in the extinction of about 70% of endemic cloud forest vertebrate species. Immediate action is required to minimize this loss—expansion of the protected-area estate in areas of low climate vulnerability is an urgent priority. Our analysis indicates that one key area for immediate protection is the Sierra de Juárez in Oaxaca. This area supports many endemic species and is expected to retain relatively large fragments of cloud forest despite rapid climate change.

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We thank M. A. Gurrola and A. González-Hernández for help compiling data. This work is financially supported by the Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología, Rufford Small Grants for Conservation, an Australian Research Council Federation Fellowship to H.P.P. and the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions.

Author information


  1. School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland 4072, Australia

    • Rocío Ponce-Reyes
    • , James E. M. Watson
    • , Richard A. Fuller
    •  & Hugh P. Possingham
  2. Instituto de Biologı´a, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México DF, CP.04510, México

    • Víctor-Hugo Reynoso-Rosales
  3. Global Conservation Programs, Wildlife Conservation Society, Bronx, New York 10460, USA

    • James E. M. Watson
  4. Centre for Tropical Biodiversity and Climate Change Research, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia

    • Jeremy VanDerWal
  5. CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship and CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, 41 Boggo Road, Dutton Park, Queensland 4102, Australia

    • Richard A. Fuller
  6. ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia

    • Robert L. Pressey
  7. ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, University of Queensland, St Lucia 36, Queensland 4072, Australia

    • Hugh P. Possingham


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R.P-R., J.E.M.W., V-H.R., J.V., R.L.P. and H.P.P. designed the study. R.P-R. carried out the research. R.P-R. and R.A.F. analysed the data. All the authors wrote the paper.

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Rocío Ponce-Reyes.

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