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Long-term climate implications of twenty-first century options for carbon dioxide emission mitigation

Nature Climate Change volume 1, pages 457–461 (2011)Cite this article

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Abstract

Long-term future warming is primarily constrained by cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide1,2,3,4. Previous studies have estimated that humankind has already emitted about 50% of the total amount allowed if warming, relative to pre-industrial, is to stay below 2 °C (refs 1, 2). Carbon dioxide emissions will thus need to decrease substantially in the future if this target is to be met. Here we show how links between near-term decisions, long-term behaviour and climate sensitivity uncertainties constrain options for emissions mitigation. Using a model of intermediate complexity5,6, we explore the implications of non-zero long-term global emissions, combined with various near-term mitigation rates or delays in action. For a median climate sensitivity, a long-term 90% emission reduction relative to the present-day level is incompatible with a 2 °C target within the coming millennium. Zero or negative emissions can be compatible with the target if medium to high emission-reduction rates begin within the next two decades. For a high climate sensitivity, however, even negative emissions would require a global mitigation rate at least as great as the highest rate considered feasible by economic models7,8 to be implemented within the coming decade. Only a low climate sensitivity would allow for a longer delay in mitigation action and a more conservative mitigation rate, and would still require at least 90% phase-out of emissions thereafter.

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Figure 1: Long-term effect of zero emissions.
Figure 2: Long-term effect of non-zero positive and negative long-term emissions.
Figure 3: Global peak temperature accounting for uncertainty in climate sensitivity.

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Acknowledgements

The authors wish to thank D. Matthews, J. Daniel and T. Sanford for helpful discussions and R. Flecker for creating Fig. 3.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, UK

    P. Friedlingstein

  2. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado 80309, USA

    S. Solomon

  3. Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, 3012 Bern, Switzerland

    G-K. Plattner

  4. Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, CH-8092 Zürich, Switzerland

    R. Knutti

  5. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environment, UMR CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Bat. 709, CE, L’Orme des Merisiers, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France

    P. Ciais

  6. CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Clunies Ross Street, Black Mountain, Acton, Australian Capital Territory 2601, Australia

    M. R. Raupach

Authors
  1. P. Friedlingstein
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Contributions

P.F. and S.S. designed the work and the experiments, P.F. performed the model simulations, G-K.P. provided the model code, G-K.P. and R.K. gave guidance on the use of the model, P.F. led the writing of the paper with contributions from all other authors.

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Correspondence to P. Friedlingstein.

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The authors declare no competing financial interests.

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Friedlingstein, P., Solomon, S., Plattner, GK. et al. Long-term climate implications of twenty-first century options for carbon dioxide emission mitigation. Nature Clim Change 1, 457–461 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1302

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