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Importance of background climate in determining impact of land-cover change on regional climate

Nature Climate Change volume 1, pages 472–475 (2011)Cite this article

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Abstract

Humans have modified the Earth’s climate through emissions of greenhouse gases and through land-use and land-cover change (LULCC)1. Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere warm the mid-latitudes more than the tropics, in part owing to a reduced snow–albedo feedback as snow cover decreases2. Higher concentration of carbon dioxide also increases precipitation in many regions1, as a result of an intensification of the hydrological cycle2. The biophysical effects of LULCC since pre-industrial times have probably cooled temperate and boreal regions and warmed some tropical regions3. Here we use a climate model to show that how snow and rainfall change under increased greenhouse gases dominates how LULCC affects regional temperature. Increased greenhouse-gas-driven changes in snow and rainfall affect the snow–albedo feedback and the supply of water, which in turn limits evaporation. These changes largely control the net impact of LULCC on regional climate. Our results show that capturing whether future biophysical changes due to LULCC warm or cool a specific region therefore requires an accurate simulation of changes in snow cover and rainfall geographically coincident with regions of LULCC. This is a challenge to current climate models, but also provides potential for further improving detection and attribution methods.

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Figure 1: The change in the impact of LULCC on surface air temperature due to increased CO2.
Figure 2: How LULCC affects key near-surface and surface variables at 1×CO2 and 2×CO2.

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Acknowledgements

We acknowledge the support of the Australian Research Council through the Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (CE110001028).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science and Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney 2052, Australia

    A. J. Pitman, F. B. Avila, G. Abramowitz & S. J. Phipps

  2. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Private Bag 1, Aspendale, Victoria 3195, Australia

    Y. P. Wang

  3. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Unité Mixte CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette cédex, France

    N. de Noblet-Ducoudré

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  1. A. J. Pitman
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  2. F. B. Avila
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Contributions

A.J.P. designed the study. F.B.A. conducted the experiments and managed the data. S.J.P. contributed the Mk3L model. A.J.P., F.B.A., G.A., Y.P.W. S.J.P. and N. de N-D. assisted with the analysis and wrote the paper.

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Correspondence to A. J. Pitman.

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The authors declare no competing financial interests.

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Pitman, A., Avila, F., Abramowitz, G. et al. Importance of background climate in determining impact of land-cover change on regional climate. Nature Clim Change 1, 472–475 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1294

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