There have been decades, such as 2000–2009, when the observed globally averaged surface-temperature time series shows little increase or even a slightly negative trend1 (a hiatus period). However, the observed energy imbalance at the top-of-atmosphere for this recent decade indicates that a net energy flux into the climate system of about 1 W m−2 (refs 2, 3) should be producing warming somewhere in the system4,5. Here we analyse twenty-first-century climate-model simulations that maintain a consistent radiative imbalance at the top-of-atmosphere of about 1 W m−2 as observed for the past decade. Eight decades with a slightly negative global mean surface-temperature trend show that the ocean above 300 m takes up significantly less heat whereas the ocean below 300 m takes up significantly more, compared with non-hiatus decades. The model provides a plausible depiction of processes in the climate system causing the hiatus periods, and indicates that a hiatus period is a relatively common climate phenomenon and may be linked to La Niña-like conditions.
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We thank C. Tebaldi for her contributions to the statistical-significance calculations. Portions of this study were supported by the Office of Science (BER), US Department of Energy, Cooperative Agreement No DE-FC02-97ER62402, by the National Science Foundation and by NASA grant NNX09AH89G. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.
The authors declare no competing financial interests.
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Meehl, G., Arblaster, J., Fasullo, J. et al. Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods. Nature Clim Change 1, 360–364 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1229
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