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Optimal timing for managed relocation of species faced with climate change

Nature Climate Change volume 1, pages 261–265 (2011)Cite this article

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Abstract

Managed relocation is a controversial climate-adaptation strategy to combat negative climate change impacts on biodiversity. While the scientific community debates the merits of managed relocation1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12, species are already being moved to new areas predicted to be more suitable under climate change13,14. To inform these moves, we construct a quantitative decision framework to evaluate the timing of relocation in the face of climate change. We find that the optimal timing depends on many factors, including the size of the population, the demographic costs of translocation and the expected carrying capacities over time in the source and destination habitats. In some settings, such as when a small population would benefit from time to grow before risking translocation losses, haste is ill advised. We also find that active adaptive management15,16 is valuable when the effect of climate change on source habitat is uncertain, and leads to delayed movement.

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Figure 1: System model for managed relocation.
Figure 2: Optimal timing of managed relocation, as a function of population size in the source, when the change in the carrying capacity under climate change is known.
Figure 3: Optimal timing of managed relocation in the face of uncertainty about the impact of climate change.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by a CSIRO Julius Career Award to T.G.M.; E.M-M. was supported by an OCE Fellowship from CSIRO, Queensland International Fellowship and an ARC APD Fellowship. H.P.P. was supported by an ARC Federation Fellowship. This work was further supported by the ARC Centre for Excellence in Environmental Decisions. We thank S. Ferrier, S. McIntyre, I. Chades and J. Nichols for comments on this manuscript and the late S. Schneider for his insights on this work.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Climate Adaptation Flagship, CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Ecosciences Precinct 41 Boggo Rd, Dutton Park 4102, Australia

    Eve McDonald-Madden & Tara G. Martin

  2. Centre for Applied Environmental Decision Analysis, The University of Queensland, School of Biological Sciences, St Lucia, Queensland 4072, Australia

    Eve McDonald-Madden & Hugh P. Possingham

  3. ARC Centre for Excellence in Environmental Decisions, University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland 4072, Australia

    Eve McDonald-Madden, Hugh P. Possingham & Tara G. Martin

  4. United States Geological Survey, Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, 12100 Beech Forest Road, Laurel, Maryland 20708, USA

    Michael C. Runge

  5. Australian Centre of Excellence for Risk Analysis, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria 3010, Australia

    Michael C. Runge

  6. Centre for Applied Environmental Decision Analysis, The University of Melbourne, School of Botany, Parkville, Victoria 3010, Australia

    Michael C. Runge

Authors
  1. Eve McDonald-Madden
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  2. Michael C. Runge
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Contributions

E.M-M., T.G.M., M.C.R. and H.P.P. designed the research. M.C.R. and E.M-M. carried out the analysis. E.M-M., T.G.M. and M.C.R. wrote the paper. All authors discussed the results and edited the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Eve McDonald-Madden.

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The authors declare no competing financial interests.

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McDonald-Madden, E., Runge, M., Possingham, H. et al. Optimal timing for managed relocation of species faced with climate change. Nature Clim Change 1, 261–265 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1170

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