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Crop–climate models need an overhaul

Estimates of how much food we can grow in a warmer world are out of date. Researchers need to switch to more rigorous multi-model ensembles.

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Figure 1: Simulated grain yields for winter wheat vary greatly between eight different models (M1–M8); the multi-model mean is quite close to the observed (Obs.) results.


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Correspondence to Reimund P. Rötter.

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Rötter, R., Carter, T., Olesen, J. et al. Crop–climate models need an overhaul. Nature Clim Change 1, 175–177 (2011).

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