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Crop–climate models need an overhaul

Nature Climate Change volume 1, pages 175–177 (2011)Cite this article

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Estimates of how much food we can grow in a warmer world are out of date. Researchers need to switch to more rigorous multi-model ensembles.

Adaptation to climate change is a costly business. In the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sectors, it has been estimated by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change that about US$14 billion will be needed annually by 2030 to cope with the adverse impacts of climate change, though this figure could be two or three times greater1. Information about the potential impacts of climate change on food supply is badly needed by agricultural policymakers to plan for the coming decades; after all, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that a 70% increase in agricultural productivity will be required by 2050 to meet the growing food demand2.

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Figure 1: Simulated grain yields for winter wheat vary greatly between eight different models (M1–M8); the multi-model mean is quite close to the observed (Obs.) results.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. MTT Agrifood Research Finland, Lönnrotinkatu 5, Mikkeli, FI-50100, Finland

    Reimund P. Rötter

  2. Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Box 140, Helsinki, FI-00251, Finland

    Timothy R. Carter

  3. Aarhus University, Blichers Allé 20, Box 50, Tjele, DK-8830, Denmark

    Jørgen E. Olesen

  4. University of Copenhagen, Hoejbakkegaard Alle 9, Taastrup, DK-2630, Denmark

    John R. Porter

Authors
  1. Reimund P. Rötter
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  2. Timothy R. Carter
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  3. Jørgen E. Olesen
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  4. John R. Porter
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Correspondence to Reimund P. Rötter.

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Rötter, R., Carter, T., Olesen, J. et al. Crop–climate models need an overhaul. Nature Clim Change 1, 175–177 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1152

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