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Pharmaceutical patent evaluation and licensing using a stochastic model and Monte Carlo simulations

Nature Biotechnology volume 29, pages 798–801 (2011)Cite this article

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The long-neglected patent value pattern must be considered when evaluating patents.

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Figure 1: The S-shape curve life cycle of patent value.
Figure 2: The patent value obtained by 2,000 Monte Carlo simulations represents the life cycle as well as value uncertainty over a 20-year period.
Figure 3: Life cycle uncertainty, market sales uncertainty and upper/lower bounds of possible patent value.

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Acknowledgements

L.C.W. contributed ideas, designed and performed experiments and data analysis and wrote the manuscript. L.H.W. contributed ideas, designed and performed experiments and wrote the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Liangchuan Wu is at National Chung Hsing University, Taichung, Taiwan,

    Liangchuan Wu

  2. Lianghong Wu is at National Central University, ChungLi, Taiwan.,

    Lianghong Wu

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  1. Liangchuan Wu
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Correspondence to Lianghong Wu.

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The authors declare no competing financial interests.

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Wu, L., Wu, L. Pharmaceutical patent evaluation and licensing using a stochastic model and Monte Carlo simulations. Nat Biotechnol 29, 798–801 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1038/nbt.1963

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