Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

Future threats to biodiversity and pathways to their prevention

Nature volumeΒ 546,Β pages 73–81 (2017)Cite this article

Subjects

Abstract

Tens of thousands of species are threatened with extinction as a result of human activities. Here we explore how the extinction risks of terrestrial mammals and birds might change in the next 50 years. Future population growth and economic development are forecasted to impose unprecedented levels of extinction risk on many more species worldwide, especially the large mammals of tropical Africa, Asia and South America. Yet these threats are not inevitable. Proactive international efforts to increase crop yields, minimize land clearing and habitat fragmentation, and protect natural lands could increase food security in developing nations and preserve much of Earth's remaining biodiversity.

This is a preview of subscription content

Access options

Buy article

Get time limited or full article access on ReadCube.

$32.00

Buy

All prices are NET prices.

Figure 1: Anthropogenic threats to mammals and birds and the role of body mass.
Figure 2: Diversity of mammals and birds worldwide and the extent of the extinction threat.
Figure 3: The current extent of large mammals and projected land clearing worldwide.
Figure 4: Projected growth rates for the human population and current crop yields worldwide.
Figure 5: Current and projected regional extinction risks for mammals and birds.
Figure 6: Potential benefits to biodiversity of proactive conservation.

References

  1. 1

    Steffen, W., Crutzen, P. J. & McNeill, J. R. The Anthropocene: are humans now overwhelming the great forces of nature? Ambio 36, 614–621 (2007).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  2. 2

    Steffen, W., Broadgate, W., Deutsch, L., Gaffney, O. & Ludwig, C. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: the Great Acceleration. Anthropocene Rev. 2, 81–98 (2015).

    Google ScholarΒ 

  3. 3

    Vitousek, P. M., Mooney, H. A, Lubchenco, J. & Melillo, J. M. Human domination of Earth's ecosystems. Science 277, 494–499 (1997).

    CASΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  4. 4

    Newbold, T. et al. Global effects of land use on local terrestrial biodiversity. Nature 520, 45–50 (2015).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  5. 5

    Maxwell, S. L., Fuller, R. A., Brooks, T. M. & Watson, J. E. M. The ravages of guns, nets and bulldozers. Nature 536, 143–145 (2016).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  6. 6

    IUCN. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Version 2016-2. http://www.iucnredlist.org. (2016).

  7. 7

    McKee, J. K., Sciulli, P. W., Fooce, C. D. & Waite, T. A. Forecasting global biodiversity threats associated with human population growth. Biol. Conserv. 115, 161–164 (2004).

    Google ScholarΒ 

  8. 8

    Visconti, P. et al. Future hotspots of terrestrial mammal loss. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B 366, 2693–2702 (2011).

    Google ScholarΒ 

  9. 9

    Visconti, P. et al. Projecting global biodiversity indicators under future development scenarios. Conserv. Lett. 9, 5–13 (2016).

    Google ScholarΒ 

  10. 10

    Balmford, A., Green, R. E. & Scharlemann, J. P. W. Sparing land for nature: exploring the potential impact of changes in agricultural yield on the area needed for crop production. Glob. Change Biol. 11, 1594–1605 (2005).

    ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  11. 11

    Barnosky, A. D., Koch, P. L., Feranec, R. S., Wing, S. L. & Shabel, A. B. Assessing the causes of late Pleistocene extinctions on the continents. Science 306, 70–75 (2004). This work shows that the interaction of human activity with climate change led to considerable increases in extinction rates during the Pleistocene epoch, especially for large mammals.

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  12. 12

    Barnosky, A. D. Megafauna biomass tradeoff as a driver of Quaternary and future extinctions. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 105, 11543–11548 (2008).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  13. 13

    Barnosky, A. D. et al. Has the Earth's sixth mass extinction already arrived? Nature 471, 51–57 (2011).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  14. 14

    Pimm, S. L., Russell, G. J., Gittleman, J. L. & Brooks, T. M. The future of biodiversity. Science 269, 347–350 (1995).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  PubMed CentralΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  15. 15

    Ceballos, G. et al. Accelerated modern human-induced species losses: entering the sixth mass extinction. Sci. Adv. 1, e1400253 (2015).

    PubMedΒ  PubMed CentralΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  16. 16

    Pimm, S. L. et al. The biodiversity of species and their rates of extinction, distribution, and protection. Science 344, 1246752 (2014). A review of the state of the knowledge of biodiversity, species distributions and extinction rates, as well as how these are likely to change in the future.

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  17. 17

    May, R. M., Lawton, J. H. & Stork, E. in Extinction Rates (eds Lawton, J. H. & May, R. M.) 1–24 (Oxford Univ. Press, 1995).

    Google ScholarΒ 

  18. 18

    United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables. Working Paper No. ESA/P/WP.241 (United Nations, 2015).

  19. 19

    Joppa, L. N. et al. Filling in biodiversity threat gaps. Science 352, 416–418 (2016).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  20. 20

    Mace, G. M. et al. Quantification of extinction risk: IUCN's system for classifying threatened species. Conserv. Biol. 22, 1424–1442 (2008).

    PubMedΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  21. 21

    Ceballos, G. & Ehrlich, P. R. Mammal population losses and the extinction crisis. Science 296, 904–907 (2002).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  22. 22

    Ripple, W. J. et al. Collapse of the world's largest herbivores. Sci. Adv. 1, e1400103 (2015).

    PubMedΒ  PubMed CentralΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  23. 23

    Di Minin, E. et al. Identification of policies for a sustainable legal trade in rhinoceros horn based on population projection and socioeconomic models. Conserv. Biol. 29, 545–555 (2015).

    PubMedΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  24. 24

    Wittemyer, G. et al. Illegal killing for ivory drives global decline in African elephants. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 111, 13117–13121 (2014).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  25. 25

    Ripple, W. J. et al. Bushmeat hunting and extinction risk to the world's mammals. R. Soc. Open Sci. 3, 160498 (2016).

    PubMedΒ  PubMed CentralΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  26. 26

    Corlett, R. T. The impact of hunting on the mammalian fauna of tropical Asian forests. Biotropica 39, 292–303 (2007).

    Google ScholarΒ 

  27. 27

    Lindsey, P. A. et al. The bushmeat trade in African savannas: impacts, drivers, and possible solutions. Biol. Conserv. 160, 80–96 (2013).

    Google ScholarΒ 

  28. 28

    Maisels, F. et al. Devastating decline of forest elephants in central Africa. PLoS ONE 8, e59469 (2013).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  PubMed CentralΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  29. 29

    Strauss, M. K. L., Kilewo, M., Rentsch, D. & Packer, C. Food supply and poaching limit giraffe abundance in the Serengeti. Popul. Ecol. 57, 505–516 (2015).

    Google ScholarΒ 

  30. 30

    Brashares, J. S. et al. Bushmeat hunting, wildlife declines, and fish supply in West Africa. Science 306, 1180–1183 (2004).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  31. 31

    Packer, C. et al. Conserving large carnivores: dollars and fence. Ecol. Lett. 16, 635–641 (2013).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  32. 32

    Packer, C., Ikanda, D., Kissui, B. & Kushnir, H. Lion attacks on humans in Tanzania. Nature 436, 927–928 (2005).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  33. 33

    Kissui, B. M. Livestock predation by lions, leopards, spotted hyenas, and their vulnerability to retaliatory killing in the Maasai steppe, Tanzania. Anim. Conserv. 11, 422–432 (2008).

    Google ScholarΒ 

  34. 34

    Hazzah, L. et al. Efficacy of two lion conservation programs in Maasailand, Kenya. Conserv. Biol. 28, 851–860 (2014).

    PubMedΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  35. 35

    Blackburn, T. M., Cassey, P., Duncan, R. P., Evans, K. L. & Kevin, J. Avian extinction and mammalian introductions on Oceanic islands. Science 305, 1955–1958 (2004).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  36. 36

    Thomas, C. D. et al. Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427, 145–148 (2004).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  PubMed CentralΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  37. 37

    Maclean, I. M. D. & Wilson, R. J. Recent ecological responses to climate change support predictions of high extinction risk. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 108, 12337–12342 (2011).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  38. 38

    Urban, M. C. Accelerating extinction risk from climate change. Science 348, 571–573 (2015).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  PubMed CentralΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  39. 39

    Cardillo, M. et al. Multiple causes of high extinction risk in large mammal species. Science 309, 1239–1241 (2005). This paper demonstrates that both biological and environmental factors make large-bodied animals more predisposed to extinction.

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  40. 40

    Grossman, G. & Krueger, A. Economic growth and the environment. Q. J. Econ. 110, 353–377 (1995).

    MATHΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  41. 41

    Balmford, A. et al. Capturing the many dimensions of threat: comment on Salafsky et al. Conserv. Biol. 23, 482–487 (2009).

    PubMedΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  42. 42

    The World Bank. World Development Indicators 2016 https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/23969 (2016).

  43. 43

    The Conference Board. Total Economy Database https://www.conference-board.org/data/economydatabase/ (2016).

  44. 44

    Rodrigues, A. S. L. Are global conservation efforts successful? Science 313, 1051–1052 (2006).

    PubMedΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  45. 45

    Butchart, S. H. M., Stattersfield, A. J. & Brooks, T. M. Going or gone: defining 'possibly extinct' species to give a truer picture of recent extinctions. Bull. Br. Ornithol. Club 126, 7–24 (2006).

    Google ScholarΒ 

  46. 46

    Hoffmann, M. et al. The impact of conservation on the status of the world's vertebrates. Science 330, 1503–1509 (2010).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  47. 47

    Butchart, S. H. M. et al. Shortfalls and solutions for meeting national and global conservation area targets. Conserv. Lett. 8, 329–337 (2015). This paper highlights that meeting goals for protected-area coverage will be insufficient to protect biodiversity unless such areas are also well managed and properly located.

    Google ScholarΒ 

  48. 48

    Geldmann, J. et al. Effectiveness of terrestrial protected areas in reducing habitat loss and population declines. Biol. Conserv. 161, 230–238 (2013).

    Google ScholarΒ 

  49. 49

    Barnes, M. D., Craigie, I. D., Dudley, N. & Hockings, M. Understanding local-scale drivers of biodiversity outcomes in terrestrial protected areas. Ann. NY Acad. Sci. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/nyas.13154 (2016).

  50. 50

    Butchart, S. H. M. et al. Protecting important sites for biodiversity contributes to meeting global conservation targets. PLoS ONE 7, e32529 (2012).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  PubMed CentralΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  51. 51

    Donald, P. F. et al. International conservation policy delivers benefits for birds in Europe. Science 317, 810–813 (2007).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  52. 52

    Jones, H. P. et al. Invasive mammal eradication on islands results in substantial conservation gains. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 113, 4033–4038 (2016).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  53. 53

    Butchart, S. H. M. et al. Global biodiversity: indicators of recent declines. Science 328, 1164–1168 (2010).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  54. 54

    Ripple, W. J. et al. Status and ecological effects of the world's largest carnivores. Science 343, 1241484 (2014).

    PubMedΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  55. 55

    Sodhi, N. S., Koh, L. P., Brook, B. W. & Ng, P. K. L. Southeast Asian biodiversity: an impending disaster. Trends Ecol. Evol. 19, 654–660 (2004).

    PubMedΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  56. 56

    Myers, N., Mittermeier, R. A., Mittermeier, C. G., Da Fonseca, G. A. & Kent, J. Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities. Nature 403, 853–858 (2000).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  57. 57

    Mittermeier, R. A. et al. Wilderness and biodiversity conservation. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 100, 10309–10313 (2011).

    ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  58. 58

    Cardillo, M., Mace, G. M., Gittleman, J. L. & Purvis, A. Latent extinction risk and the future battlegrounds of mammal conservation. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 103, 4157–4161 (2006).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  59. 59

    Johansson, Γ… . et al. Looking to 2060: Long-term Global Growth Prospects. OECD Economic Policy Paper 3 (OECD, 2012).

    Google ScholarΒ 

  60. 60

    Tilman, D., Balzer, C., Hill, J. & Befort, B. L. Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 108, 20260–20264 (2011).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  61. 61

    Tilman, D. & Clark, M. Global diets link environmental sustainability and human health. Nature 515, 518–522 (2014).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  62. 62

    McCarthy, D. P. et al. Financial costs of meeting global biodiversity conservation targets: current spending and unmet needs. Science 338, 946–949 (2012).

    CASΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  63. 63

    Balmford, A. & Whitten, T. Who should pay for tropical conservation, and how could the costs be met? Oryx 37, 238–250 (2003).

    Google ScholarΒ 

  64. 64

    Lenzen, M. et al. International trade drives biodiversity threats in developing nations. Nature 486, 109–112 (2012).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  65. 65

    Weinzettel, J., Steen-Olsen, K., Hertwich, E. G., Borucke, M. & Galli, A. Ecological footprint of nations: comparison of process analysis, and standard and hybrid multiregional input–output analysis. Ecol. Econ. 101, 115–126 (2014).

    Google ScholarΒ 

  66. 66

    Wiedmann, T. O. et al. The material footprint of nations. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 112, 6271–6276 (2015).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  67. 67

    Brooks, T., Mittermeier, R. & Da Fonseca, G. A. B. Global biodiversity conservation priorities. Science 313, 58–61 (2006).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  68. 68

    Ricketts, T. H. et al. Pinpointing and preventing imminent extinctions. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 102, 18497–18501 (2005).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  69. 69

    Balmford, A. Conservation conflicts across Africa. Science 291, 2616–2619 (2001).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  70. 70

    Joppa, L. N. & Pfaff, A. High and far: biases in the location of protected areas. PLoS ONE 4, 1–6 (2009).

    Google ScholarΒ 

  71. 71

    Wilson, K. A., McBride, M. F., Bode, M. & Possingham, H. P. Prioritizing global conservation efforts. Nature 440, 337–340 (2006).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  72. 72

    Laurance, W. F. et al. Ecosystem decay of Amazonian forest fragments: a 22-year investigation. Conserv. Biol. 16, 605–618 (2002). This study shows that large fragments of habitat are crucial for preserving biodiversity and the function of ecosystems in the face of habitat loss.

    Google ScholarΒ 

  73. 73

    Haddad, N. M. et al. Habitat fragmentation and its lasting impact on Earth's ecosystems. Sci. Adv. 1, e1500052 (2015). This paper demonstrates that forest fragments, especially small and isolated patches, experience declines in ecosystem function and lose diversity over time, providing empirical evidence for the extinction debt.

    PubMedΒ  PubMed CentralΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  74. 74

    Cousins, S. A. O. Extinction debt in fragmented grasslands: paid or not? J. Veg. Sci. 20, 3–7 (2009).

    Google ScholarΒ 

  75. 75

    Laurance, W. F. et al. Averting biodiversity collapse in tropical forest protected areas. Nature 489, 290–294 (2012).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  76. 76

    Ferraz, G. et al. Rates of species loss from Amazonian forest fragments. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 100, 14069–14073 (2003).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  77. 77

    Harris, G., Thirgood, S., Hopcraft, J. G. C., Cromsigt, J. P. G. M. & Berger, J. Global decline in aggregated migrations of large terrestrial mammals. Endanger. Species Res. 7, 55–76 (2009).

    Google ScholarΒ 

  78. 78

    Msoffe, F. U. et al. Spatial correlates of land-use changes in the Maasai-Steppe of Tanzania: implications for conservation and environmental planning. Int. J. Biodivers. Conserv. 3, 280–290 (2011).

    Google ScholarΒ 

  79. 79

    Craigie, I. D. et al. Large mammal population declines in Africa's protected areas. Biol. Conserv. 143, 2221–2228 (2010).

    Google ScholarΒ 

  80. 80

    Butchart, S. H. M., Stattersfield, A. J. & Collar, N. J. How many bird extinctions have we prevented? Oryx 40, 266–278 (2006).

    Google ScholarΒ 

  81. 81

    Gross, M. The plight of the pachyderms. Curr. Biol. 26, R865–R868 (2016).

    CASΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  82. 82

    Damania, R., Milner-Gulland, E. J. & Crookes, D. J. A bioeconomic analysis of bushmeat hunting. Proc. R. Soc. B 272, 259–266 (2005).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  83. 83

    Price, S. A. & Gittleman, J. L. Hunting to extinction: biology and regional economy influence extinction risk and the impact of hunting in artiodactyls. Proc. R. Soc. B 274, 1845–1851 (2007).

    PubMedΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  84. 84

    Bodmer, R. E., Eisenberg, J. F. & Redford, K. H. Hunting and the likelihood of extinction of Amazonian mammals. Conserv. Biol. 11, 460–466 (1997).

    Google ScholarΒ 

  85. 85

    Fabinyi, M. & Liu, N. The Chinese policy and governance context for global fisheries. Ocean Coast. Manage. 96, 198–202 (2014).

    Google ScholarΒ 

  86. 86

    Pounds, J. A. et al. Widespread amphibian extinctions from epidemic disease driven by global warming. Nature 439, 161–167 (2006).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  87. 87

    Sinervo, B. et al. Erosion of lizard diversity by climate change and altered thermal niches. Science 328, 894–899 (2010).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  88. 88

    Burrows, M. T., Schoeman, D. S. & Richardson, A. J. Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity. Nature 507, 492–495 (2014).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  89. 89

    Benning, T. & LaPointe, D. Interactions of climate change with biological invasions and land use in the Hawaiian Islands: modeling the fate of endemic birds using a geographic information system. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 99, 14246–14249 (2002).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  90. 90

    Rogelj, J. et al. Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 Β°C. Nature 534, 631–639 (2016).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  91. 91

    Brockington, D. & Wilkie, D. Protected areas and poverty. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 370, 20140271 (2015).

    Google ScholarΒ 

  92. 92

    Williams, R., Burgess, M. G., Ashe, E., Gaines, S. D. & Reeves, R. R. U.S. seafood import restriction presents opportunity and risk. Science 354, 1372–1374 (2016).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  93. 93

    de Vente, J., Reed, M. S., Stringer, L. C., Valente, S. & Newig, J. How does the context and design of participatory decision making processes affect their outcomes? Evidence from sustainable land management in global drylands. Ecol. Soc. 21, 24 (2016).

    Google ScholarΒ 

  94. 94

    Margules, C. & Pressey, R. Systematic conservation planning. Nature 405, 243–253 (2000).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  95. 95

    Polasky, S. et al. Where to put things? Spatial land management to sustain biodiversity and economic returns. Biol. Conserv. 141, 1505–1524 (2008).

    Google ScholarΒ 

  96. 96

    Bateman, I. J. et al. Bringing ecosystem services into economic decision-making: land use in the United Kingdom. Science 341, 45–50 (2013).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  97. 97

    Lawler, J. J. et al. Projected land-use change impacts on ecosystem services in the United States. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 111, 7492–7497 (2014).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  98. 98

    Ouyang, Z. et al. Improvements in ecosystem services from investments in natural capital. Science 352, 1455–1459 (2016).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  99. 99

    Polasky, S. et al. Are investments to promote biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services aligned? Oxf. Rev. Econ. Policy 28, 139–163 (2012).

    Google ScholarΒ 

  100. 100

    Phalan, B. et al. How can higher-yield farming help to spare nature? Science 351, 450–451 (2016).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  101. 101

    Jackson, R. M., Mishra, C., McCarthy, T. M. & Ale, S. B. in The Biology and Conservation of Wild Felids Ch. 19, 417–430 (Oxford Univ. Press, 2010).

    Google ScholarΒ 

  102. 102

    Mueller, N. D. et al. Closing yield gaps through nutrient and water management. Nature 490, 254–257 (2012). This study predicts that crop yields in many developing nations can be doubled or tripled by appropriate fertilization and irrigation, potentially reducing the need for land clearing.

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  103. 103

    Global Yield Gap and Water Productivity Atlas. Global Yield Gap Atlas http://www.yieldgap.org/ (accessed in September 2016).

  104. 104

    Byerlee, D., Stevenson, J. & Villoria, N. Does intensification slow crop land expansion or encourage deforestation? Glob. Food Sec. 3, 92–98 (2014).

    Google ScholarΒ 

  105. 105

    Wezel, A. et al. Agroecological practices for sustainable agriculture. A review. Agron. Sustain. Dev. 34, 1–20 (2014).

    Google ScholarΒ 

  106. 106

    Matson, P. A., Parton, W. J., Power, A. G. & Swift, M. Agricultural intensification and ecosystem properties. Science 277, 504–509 (1997).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  107. 107

    Godfray, H. C. & Garnett, T. Food security and sustainable intensification. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 369, 20120273 (2014).

    PubMedΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  108. 108

    Robertson, G. P. et al. Farming for ecosystem services: an ecological approach to production agriculture. Bioscience 64, 404–415 (2014).

    Google ScholarΒ 

  109. 109

    Vitousek, P. M. et al. Nutrient imbalances in agricultural development. Science 324, 1519–1520 (2009). This work shows that high crop yields can be retained, even when the rate of nitrogen fertilization is reduced, by matching application rates to the current needs of crops.

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  110. 110

    Dorward, A. & Chirwa, E. The Malawi agricultural input subsidy programme: 2005/06 to 2008/09. Int. J. Agric. Sustain. 9, 232–247 (2011).

    Google ScholarΒ 

  111. 111

    Druilhe, Z. & Barreiro-HurlΓ©, J. Fertilizer subsidies in sub-Saharan Africa. ESA Working Paper No. 12–04 (FAO, 2012).

  112. 112

    Khan, Z. R. et al. Achieving food security for one million sub-Saharan African poor through push–pull innovation by 2020. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B. 369, 20120284 (2014).

    Google ScholarΒ 

  113. 113

    Hall, N. M. et al. Effect of improved fallow on crop productivity, soil fertility and climate-forcing gas emissions in semi-arid conditions. Biol. Fertil. Soils 42, 224–230 (2006).

    Google ScholarΒ 

  114. 114

    Garrity, D. P. et al. Evergreen agriculture: a robust approach to sustainable food security in Africa. Food Secur. 2, 197–214 (2010).

    Google ScholarΒ 

  115. 115

    Popkin, B. M. The nutrition transition in low-income countries: an emerging crisis. Nutr. Rev. 52, 285–298 (1994).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  116. 116

    Key, T. J., Thorogood, M., Appleby, P. N. & Burr, M. L. Dietary habits and mortality in 11,000 vegetarians and health conscious people: results of a 17 year follow up. Br. Med. J. 313, 775–779 (1996).

    CASΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  117. 117

    Mann, J. I., Appleby, P. N., Key, T. J. & Thorogood, M. Dietary determinants of ischaemic heart disease in health conscious individuals. Heart 78, 450–455 (1997).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  PubMed CentralΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  118. 118

    Lagiou, P. et al. Mediterranean dietary pattern and mortality among young women: a cohort study in Sweden. Br. J. Nutr. 96, 384–392 (2006).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  119. 119

    Brunner, E. J. et al. Dietary patterns and 15-y risks of major coronary events, diabetes, and mortality. Am. J. Clin. Nutr. 87, 1414–1421 (2008).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  120. 120

    MartΓ­nez-GonzΓ‘lez, M. A. et al. Adherence to Mediterranean diet and risk of developing diabetes: prospective cohort study. Br. Med. J. 336, 1348–1351 (2008).

    Google ScholarΒ 

  121. 121

    Johnson, J. A., Runge, C. F., Senauer, B., Foley, J. & Polasky, S. Global agriculture and carbon trade-offs. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 111, 12342–12347 (2014).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  122. 122

    West, P. C. et al. Trading carbon for food: global comparison of carbon stocks vs. crop yields on agricultural land. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 107, 19645–19648 (2010).

    CASΒ  PubMedΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

  123. 123

    Johnson, J. A., Runge, C. F., Senauer, B. & Polasky, S. Global food demand and carbon-preserving cropland expansion under varying levels of intensification. Land Econ. 92, 579–592 (2016).

    Google ScholarΒ 

  124. 124

    Erb, K.-H. et al. Exploring the biophysical option space for feeding the world without deforestation. Nature Commun. 7, 11382 (2016).

    CASΒ  ADSΒ  Google ScholarΒ 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We thank N. Hartline for assistance with assembling data, J. Cowles and F. Isbell for their comments, and the Long Term Ecological Research programme of the US National Science Foundation, the International Balzan Prize Foundation, the McKnight Presidential Chair, the University of Minnesota and the University of California, Santa Barbara for support. All data used in our analyses are publicly available from the original sources that we list or are in Supplementary Tables 3 and 4.

Author information

Affiliations

  1. Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, University of Minnesota, St Paul, 55108, Minnesota, USA

    David Tilman,Β Kaitlin Kimmel,Β Stephen PolaskyΒ &Β Craig Packer

  2. Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, 93106, California, USA

    David TilmanΒ &Β David R. Williams

  3. Natural Resources Science and Management, University of Minnesota, St Paul,, 55108, Minnesota, USA

    Michael Clark

  4. Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St Paul, 55108, Minnesota, USA

    Stephen Polasky

  5. Department of Zoology, Wildlife Conservation Research Unit, University of Oxford, Recanati-Kaplan Centre, Tubney, OX13 5QL, Oxfordshire, UK

    Craig Packer

  6. School of Life Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg Campus, Scottsville, 3209, South Africa

    Craig Packer

Authors
  1. David Tilman
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMedΒ Google Scholar

  2. Michael Clark
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMedΒ Google Scholar

  3. David R. Williams
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMedΒ Google Scholar

  4. Kaitlin Kimmel
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMedΒ Google Scholar

  5. Stephen Polasky
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMedΒ Google Scholar

  6. Craig Packer
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMedΒ Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to David Tilman.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Additional information

Author Contributions D.T., D.R.W. and M.C. conceived the project and M.C. and D.R.W. assembled data; D.T., M.C. and D.R.W. analysed the data; D.T., D.R.W., C.P., M.C., S.P. and K.K. wrote the paper.

Reviewer Information Nature thanks C. Godfray, L. Joppa and the other anonymous reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

Reprints and permissions information is available at www.nature.com.reprints.

Supplementary information

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Tilman, D., Clark, M., Williams, D. et al. Future threats to biodiversity and pathways to their prevention. Nature 546, 73–81 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature22900

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nature22900

Further reading

Comments

By submitting a comment you agree to abide by our Terms and Community Guidelines. If you find something abusive or that does not comply with our terms or guidelines please flag it as inappropriate.

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter β€” what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing