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How foreign is the past?

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Figure 1: Break-point re-analysis of the ‘no-island’ dataset using log[age] as the predictor and a Gaussian link function.
Figure 2: Effect of number of observations on the proportion of aggregated taxon pairs for the datasets used by Lyons et al.


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Authors and Affiliations



All authors discussed the manuscript. R.J.T. investigated the modern datasets and ran the power tests. J.D.C. carried out the break-point analyses. R.J.T., H.H.B., and H.J.B.B. contributed to the first draft. All authors edited the final draft.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Richard J. Telford.

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The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Extended data figures and tables

Extended Data Figure 1 Effect of number of observations on percentage of aggregated taxon pairs for four datasets used by Lyons et al.

ad, US desert rodents (a), Holocene mammals (b), 1,000-year-old North American pollen (c), and 1950 Wisconsin understorey vegetation (d). Grey band shows 95% confidence interval of a local regression smoother fitted with a quasi-binomial distribution.

Extended Data Table 1 Estimated age (years) of the break point and its 95% confidence interval (credible interval for MCMC model) for different subsets of the data

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Telford, R., Chipperfield, J., Birks, H. et al. How foreign is the past?. Nature 538, E1–E2 (2016).

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