Varying combinations of three model parameters (first column) correspond to OCFAC, CREVLIQ and VCLIF, respectively (see Methods). The resulting GMSL contributions of each ensemble member driven by Pliocene and LIG climatologies are shown in the second and third columns. Combinations of model parameters satisfying Pliocene and LIG sea-level targets are assigned a Large Ensemble number (LE#) in the fourth column. Default model parameter values (LE# 12) and resulting Pliocene and LIG GMSL rise are in bold type. Four future ensembles using alternative sets of the palaeo-filtered Large Ensemble members and following RCP2.5, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios are shown at right. The top two ensembles use 29 combinations of parameter values that satisfy LIG sea-level targets and a range of Pliocene sea-level targets between 5 m and 15 m. The bottom two ensembles use a more restricted set of 15 parameter combinations that satisfy a higher Pliocene target range >10 m. Future RCP ensembles at left correspond to the GMSL time series in Fig. 5. The two ensemble sets at far right include the ocean-temperature bias correction described in the text, Fig. 4 and Extended Data Fig. 5. Antarctic GMSL contributions for each ensemble member are shown at 2100 and 2500. Ensemble means and 1 σ standard deviations are also shown. GMSL contributions in future ensembles are relative to 2000.