Figure 4 : Future ice-sheet simulations and Antarctic contributions to GMSL from 1950 to 2500 driven by a high-resolution atmospheric model and 1° NCAR CCSM4 ocean temperatures.

From: Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise

Figure 4

a, Equivalent CO2 forcing applied to the simulations, following the RCP emission scenarios in ref. 36, except limited to 8 × PAL (preindustrial atmospheric level, where 1 PAL = 280 p.p.m.v.). b, Antarctic contribution to GMSL. c, Rate of sea-level rise and approximate timing of major retreat and thinning in the Antarctic Peninsula (AP), Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) outlet glaciers, AS–BS, Amundsen Sea–Bellingshausen Sea; the Totten (T), Siple Coast (SC) and Weddell Sea (WS) grounding zones, the deep Thwaites Glacier basin (TG), interior WAIS, the Recovery Glacier, and the deep EAIS basins (Wilkes and Aurora). d, Antarctic contribution to GMSL over the next 100 years for RCP8.5 with and without a +3 °C adjustment in ocean model temperatures in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas as shown in Extended Data Fig. 5d. e–g, Ice-sheet snapshots at 2500 in the RCP2.6 (e), RCP4.5 (f) and RCP8.5 (g) scenarios. Ice-free land surfaces are shown in brown. h, Close-ups of the Amundsen Sea sector of WAIS in RCP8.5 with bias-corrected ocean model temperatures.