Figure 3 : Ice-sheet simulations and Antarctic contributions to GMSL through the LIG driven by a time-evolving, proxy-based atmosphere–ocean climatology.

From: Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise

Figure 3

a, Change in GMSL in LIG simulations starting at 130 kyr ago and initialized with a modern ice sheet (blue) or a bigger LGM ice sheet representing glacial conditions at the onset of the LIG (red). A probabilistic reconstruction of Antarctica’s contribution to GMSL is shown in black3 with uncertainties (16th and 84th percentiles) as dashed lines. b, c, Ice-sheet thickness at the time of maximum retreat using modern initial conditions (b) and using glacial initial conditions (c). Ice-free land surfaces are brown. The bigger sea-level response when initialized with the ‘glacial’ ice sheet is caused by deeper bed elevations and the ~3,000-yr lagged bedrock response to ice retreat50, which enhances bathymetrically sensitive MISI dynamics. d, The same simulation as b without the new model physics accounting for meltwater-enhanced calving or ice-cliff failure27. GMSL contributions are shown at top left.