Extended Data Figure 7 : The long-term future of the ice sheet and GMSL over the next 5,000 years following RCP8.5 and RCP4.5.

From: Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise

Extended Data Figure 7

a, Equivalent CO2 forcing following RCP8.5 until the year 2500, and then assuming zero emissions after 2500 and allowing a natural relaxation of greenhouse gas levels (red) or assuming a fast, engineered drawdown (blue) with an e-folding timescale of 100 years. b. Antarctic contribution to GMSL over the next 5,000 years, following the greenhouse gas scenarios in a. c, The same as a, except showing long-term RCP4.5 greenhouse gas forcing. d, The same as b, except following the RCP4.5 scenarios in c. The insets in b and d show the ice sheet (and remaining sea-level rise) after 5,000 model years in RCP8.5 and RCP4.5, respectively, assuming fast CO2 drawdown (blue lines), highlighting the multi-millennial commitment to a loss of marine-based Antarctic ice, even in the moderate RCP4.5 scenario. Note the different y-axes in RCP8.5 versus RCP4.5.