Extended Data Figure 6 : Effect of future ocean warming only.

From: Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise

Extended Data Figure 6

a, Antarctic contribution to future GMSL rise in long, 5,000-yr ice-sheet simulations driven by sub-surface ocean warming simulated by CCSM4, following RCP8.5 (black line), with a +3 °C adjustment in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas (blue line; see Extended Data Fig. 5) and a warmer +5 °C adjustment (red line). Atmospheric temperatures and precipitation are maintained at their present values. bd, Ice-sheet thickness at model-year 5,000, driven by sub-surface ocean forcing from CCSM4 (b) and from CCSM4 with a +3 °C (c) or +5 °C (d) adjustment in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas. Note the near-complete loss of ice shelves, but modest grounding-line retreat in b, the retreat of Pine Island Glacier in c, and the near-complete collapse of WAIS once a stability threshold in the Thwaites Glacier grounding line is reached in d.