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The terrestrial biosphere as a net source of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere

Nature volume 531, pages 225–228 (2016)Cite this article

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Abstract

The terrestrial biosphere can release or absorb the greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), and therefore has an important role in regulating atmospheric composition and climate1. Anthropogenic activities such as land-use change, agriculture and waste management have altered terrestrial biogenic greenhouse gas fluxes, and the resulting increases in methane and nitrous oxide emissions in particular can contribute to climate change2,3. The terrestrial biogenic fluxes of individual greenhouse gases have been studied extensively4,5,6, but the net biogenic greenhouse gas balance resulting from anthropogenic activities and its effect on the climate system remains uncertain. Here we use bottom-up (inventory, statistical extrapolation of local flux measurements, and process-based modelling) and top-down (atmospheric inversions) approaches to quantify the global net biogenic greenhouse gas balance between 1981 and 2010 resulting from anthropogenic activities and its effect on the climate system. We find that the cumulative warming capacity of concurrent biogenic methane and nitrous oxide emissions is a factor of about two larger than the cooling effect resulting from the global land carbon dioxide uptake from 2001 to 2010. This results in a net positive cumulative impact of the three greenhouse gases on the planetary energy budget, with a best estimate (in petagrams of CO2 equivalent per year) of 3.9 ± 3.8 (top down) and 5.4 ± 4.8 (bottom up) based on the GWP100 metric (global warming potential on a 100-year time horizon). Our findings suggest that a reduction in agricultural methane and nitrous oxide emissions, particularly in Southern Asia, may help mitigate climate change.

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Figure 1: The overall biogenic GHG balance of the terrestrial biosphere in the 2000s.
Figure 2: Changes in the decadal balance of human-induced biogenic GHGs in the past three decades (based on GWP100).
Figure 3: The balance of human-induced biogenic GHGs for different continents in the 2000s (based on GWP100).

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Acknowledgements

This research was supported partially by NASA grants (NNX08AL73G, NNX14AO73G, NNX10AU06G, NNX11AD47G, NNG04GM39C) and NSF grants (AGS 1243232, AGS-1243220, CNH1210360). J.G.C. was supported by the Australian Climate Change Science Program. E.S. was supported by the NOAA Climate Program Office (award NA13OAR4310059). C.R.S. was supported by NASA grants (NNX12AP74G, NNX10AG01A, NNX11AO08A). K.R.G. was supported by NSF CAREER (AGS-0846358). R.G.P. was supported by a NASA Upper Atmosphere Research Program AGAGE grant (NNX11AF17G to MIT). This study contributes to the Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases Synthesis of NACP (North American Carbon Program), and the Global Carbon Project (a joint project of IGBP, IHDP, WCRP and Diversitas).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. International Center for Climate and Global Change Research, School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, Auburn, 36849, Alabama, USA

    Hanqin Tian, Chaoqun Lu, Bowen Zhang, Jia Yang & Shufen Pan

  2. Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Organismal Biology, Iowa State University, Iowa, 50011, USA

    Chaoqun Lu

  3. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Gif sur Yvette, 91191, France

    Philippe Ciais, Philippe Bousquet & Marielle Saunois

  4. Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, 94305, California, USA

    Anna M. Michalak

  5. Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Research, GPO Box 3023, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2601, Australia

    Josep G. Canadell

  6. Department of Environmental Sciences, Emory University, Atlanta, 30322, Georgia, USA

    Eri Saikawa

  7. School of Earth Sciences and Environmental Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, 86011, Arizona, USA

    Deborah N. Huntzinger & Christopher R. Schwalm

  8. School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, 85287, Arizona, USA

    Kevin R. Gurney

  9. College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4RJ, UK

    Stephen Sitch

  10. Global Monitoring Division, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, 80305, Colorado, USA

    Lori Bruhwiler & Edward Dlugokencky

  11. Environmental Science Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, 37831, USA

    Guangsheng Chen

  12. College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QF, UK

    Pierre Friedlingstein

  13. The Ecosystems Center, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, 02543, Massachusetts, USA

    Jerry Melillo

  14. Institute of Ecosystems and Department of Ecology, Montana State University, Bozeman, 59717, Montana, USA

    Benjamin Poulter

  15. Center for Global Change Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, 02139, Massachusetts, USA

    Ronald Prinn

  16. Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, 02540, Massachusetts, USA

    Christopher R. Schwalm

  17. Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Harvard University, 29 Oxford Street, Cambridge, 02138, Massachusetts, USA

    Steven C. Wofsy

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Contributions

H.T. initiated this research and was responsible for the integrity of the work as a whole. H.T. and C.L. performed analysis, calculations and drafted the manuscript. P.C., A.M.M. and J.G.C. contributed to data synthesis and manuscript development. B.Z., J.Y., G.C. and S.P. contributed to data collection and analysis. E.S., D.N.H., K.R.G., S.S., P.B., L.B., E.D., P. F., J.M., B.P., R.G.P., M.S., C.R.S. and S.C.W. contributed to data provision, data processing, or interpretation. All authors discussed and commented on the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Hanqin Tian.

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The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Extended data figures and tables

Extended Data Table 1 Decadal estimates of global terrestrial biogenic CO2, CH4 and N2O fluxes
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Supplementary Information

This file contains a list of data sources used in the study and Supplementary Tables 1-3. (PDF 692 kb)

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Tian, H., Lu, C., Ciais, P. et al. The terrestrial biosphere as a net source of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Nature 531, 225–228 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature16946

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