Critical insolation–CO2 relation for diagnosing past and future glacial inception

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The past rapid growth of Northern Hemisphere continental ice sheets, which terminated warm and stable climate periods, is generally attributed to reduced summer insolation in boreal latitudes1,2,3. Yet such summer insolation is near to its minimum at present4, and there are no signs of a new ice age5. This challenges our understanding of the mechanisms driving glacial cycles and our ability to predict the next glacial inception6. Here we propose a critical functional relationship between boreal summer insolation and global carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, which explains the beginning of the past eight glacial cycles and might anticipate future periods of glacial inception. Using an ensemble of simulations generated by an Earth system model of intermediate complexity constrained by palaeoclimatic data, we suggest that glacial inception was narrowly missed before the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. The missed inception can be accounted for by the combined effect of relatively high late-Holocene CO2 concentrations and the low orbital eccentricity of the Earth7. Additionally, our analysis suggests that even in the absence of human perturbations no substantial build-up of ice sheets would occur within the next several thousand years and that the current interglacial would probably last for another 50,000 years. However, moderate anthropogenic cumulative CO2 emissions of 1,000 to 1,500 gigatonnes of carbon will postpone the next glacial inception by at least 100,000 years8,9. Our simulations demonstrate that under natural conditions alone the Earth system would be expected to remain in the present delicately balanced interglacial climate state, steering clear of both large-scale glaciation of the Northern Hemisphere and its complete deglaciation, for an unusually long time.

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Author information


  1. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14412 Potsdam, Germany

    • A. Ganopolski
    • , R. Winkelmann
    •  & H. J. Schellnhuber
  2. Physics Institute, Potsdam University, 14476 Potsdam, Germany

    • R. Winkelmann
  3. Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico 87501, USA

    • H. J. Schellnhuber


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A.G. and H.J.S. designed the paper. A.G. developed the methodology and performed the research (with contributions from R.W.). A.G., R.W. and H.J.S. interpreted the results and wrote the paper.

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to A. Ganopolski.

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