Figure 4: Predictions of interruption of transmission for mass drug administration (MDA) and mass screen and treat (MSAT) with three diagnostic detection limits. | Nature

Figure 4: Predictions of interruption of transmission for mass drug administration (MDA) and mass screen and treat (MSAT) with three diagnostic detection limits.

From: Assessing the impact of next-generation rapid diagnostic tests on Plasmodium falciparum malaria elimination strategies

Figure 4

a, Number of annual rounds required to interrupt transmission for a range of entomological inoculation rate values between 0.5 and 9.5 predicted by the Imperial College model. b, The probability of interrupting transmission by transmission intensity and diagnostic sensitivity predicted by OpenMalaria. We simulated scenarios for each effective transmission intensity of 10,000 individuals with no imported infections, no correlation in who receives each dose and low case-management. Because OpenMalaria is stochastic, we ran 100 simulations at each transmission intensity and present the proportion of scenarios in which transmission was interrupted. We chose one point in time to represent the results, after four years of MSAT. a and b assume three treatment rounds per year 1 month apart in the dry season.

Back to article page