Figure 3: Example simulation of time to interrupt transmission. | Nature

Figure 3: Example simulation of time to interrupt transmission.

From: Assessing the impact of next-generation rapid diagnostic tests on Plasmodium falciparum malaria elimination strategies

Figure 3

a, Time series plots from the Imperial College model showing the impact of 8 years of intervention that consists of three rounds of mass screen and treat (MSAT) or mass drug administration (MDA) a month apart during the dry season with dihydroartemisinin and piperaquine at a coverage of 80%. The entomological inoculation rate is assumed to be 2.5. The blue, yellow and grey lines show the impact of MSAT using a diagnostic with a sensitivity of 200, 20 and 2 parasites per microlitre. The green line shows the impact of MDA implemented with the same timing and coverage as MSAT. The dashed line shows the prevalence threshold at which, if prevalence remains below this line for 50 consecutive days, we claim that transmission is interrupted. b, Enlarged version of a showing the interruption of transmission prevalence threshold. The arrows show the time at which interruption of transmission is achieved and the colours of the arrows correspond to the prevalence curves. EIR, entomological inoculation rates; PCR, polymerase chain reaction.

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