Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

Increases in tropical rainfall driven by changes in frequency of organized deep convection

Nature volume 519, pages 451–454 (2015)Cite this article

Subjects

Abstract

Increasing global precipitation has been associated with a warming climate resulting from a strengthening of the hydrological cycle1. This increase, however, is not spatially uniform. Observations and models have found that changes in rainfall show patterns characterized as ‘wet-gets-wetter’1,2,3,4,5,6,7 and ‘warmer-gets-wetter’5,8,9. These changes in precipitation are largely located in the tropics and hence are probably associated with convection. However, the underlying physical processes for the observed changes are not entirely clear. Here we show from observations that most of the regional increase in tropical precipitation is associated with changes in the frequency of organized deep convection. By assessing the contributions of various convective regimes to precipitation, we find that the spatial patterns of change in the frequency of organized deep convection are strongly correlated with observed change in rainfall, both positive and negative (correlation of 0.69), and can explain most of the patterns of increase in rainfall. In contrast, changes in less organized forms of deep convection or changes in precipitation within organized deep convection contribute less to changes in precipitation. Our results identify organized deep convection as the link between changes in rainfall and in the dynamics of the tropical atmosphere, thus providing a framework for obtaining a better understanding of changes in rainfall. Given the lack of a distinction between the different degrees of organization of convection in climate models10, our results highlight an area of priority for future climate model development in order to achieve accurate rainfall projections in a warming climate.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Relevant articles

Open Access articles citing this article.

Access options

Rent or buy this article

Prices vary by article type

from$1.95

to$39.95

Learn more

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: Joint-histograms of the centroids of the convective cloud regimes.
Figure 2: Precipitation distributions of the convective CRs.
Figure 3: The spatial distribution of the changes in precipitation from 1998 to 2009.
Figure 4: The spatial distribution of the changes in precipitation from July 1983 to December 2009.

References

  1. Held, I. M. & Soden, B. J. Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J. Clim. 19, 5686–5699 (2006)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  2. Allan, R. P., Soden, B. J., John, V. O., Ingram, W. & Good, P. Current changes in tropical precipitation. Environ. Res. Lett. 5, 025205 (2010)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  3. Liu, C. & Allan, R. P. Multisatellite observed responses of precipitation and its extremes to interannual climate variability. J. Geophys. Res. 117, D03101 (2012)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  4. Chou, C. et al. Increase in the range between wet and dry season precipitation. Nature Geosci. 6, 263–267 (2013)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  5. Huang, P., Xie, S.-P., Hu, K., Huang, G. & Huang, R. Patterns of the seasonal response of tropical rainfall to global warming. Nature Geosci. 6, 357–361 (2013)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  6. Chou, C., Neelin, J. D., Chen, C.-A. & Tu, J.-Y. Evaluating the ‘rich-get-richer’ mechanism in tropical precipitation change under global warming. J. Clim. 22, 1982–2005 (2009)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  7. Seager, R., Naik, N. & Vecchi, G. A. Thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms for large-scale changes in the hydrological cycle in response to global warming. J. Clim. 23, 4651–4668 (2010)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  8. Xie, S.-P. et al. Global warming pattern formation: sea surface temperature and rainfall. J. Clim. 23, 966–986 (2010)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  9. Chadwick, R., Boutle, I. & Martin, G. Spatial patterns of precipitation change in CMIP5: why the rich do not get richer in the tropics. J. Clim. 26, 3803–3822 (2013)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  10. Mapes, B. & Neale, R. Parameterizing convective organization to escape the entrainment dilemma. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. 3, M06004 (2011)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  11. Tselioudis, G., Tromeur, E., Rossow, W. B. & Zerefos, C. S. Decadal changes in tropical convection suggest effects on stratospheric water vapor. Geophys. Res. Lett. 37, L14806 (2010)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  12. Jakob, C. & Schumacher, C. Precipitation and latent heating characteristics of the major Tropical Western Pacific cloud regimes. J. Clim. 21, 4348–4364 (2008)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  13. Tan, J., Jakob, C. & Lane, T. P. On the identification of the large-scale properties of tropical convection using cloud regimes. J. Clim. 26, 6618–6632 (2013)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  14. Lee, D., Oreopoulos, L., Huffman, G. J., Rossow, W. B. & Kang, I.-S. The precipitation characteristics of ISCCP tropical weather states. J. Clim. 26, 772–788 (2013)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  15. Rossow, W. B., Mekonnen, A., Pearl, C. & Goncalves, W. Tropical precipitation extremes. J. Clim. 26, 1457–1466 (2013)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  16. Jakob, C. & Tselioudis, G. Objective identification of cloud regimes in the Tropical Western Pacific. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30, 2082 (2003)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  17. Rossow, W. B., Tselioudis, G., Polak, A. & Jakob, C. Tropical climate described as a distribution of weather states indicated by distinct mesoscale cloud property mixtures. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L21812 (2005)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  18. Jakob, C., Tselioudis, G. & Hume, T. The radiative, cloud, and thermodynamic properties of the major tropical western Pacific cloud regimes. J. Clim. 18, 1203–1215 (2005)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  19. Li, W., Schumacher, C. & McFarlane, S. A. Radiative heating of the ISCCP upper level cloud regimes and its impact on the large-scale tropical circulation. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 118, 592–604 (2013)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  20. Stachnik, J. P., Schumacher, C. & Ciesielski, P. E. Total heating characteristics of the ISCCP tropical and subtropical cloud regimes. J. Clim. 26, 7097–7116 (2013)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  21. Handlos, Z. J. & Back, L. E. Estimating vertical motion profile shape within tropical weather states over the oceans. J. Clim. 27, 7667–7686 (2014)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  22. Laing, A. G. & Fritsch, J. M. The global population of mesoscale convective complexes. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 123, 389–405 (1997)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  23. Huffman, G. J. et al. The TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA): quasi-global, multiyear, combined-sensor precipitation estimates at fine scales. J. Hydrometeorol. 8, 38–55 (2007)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  24. Adler, R. F. et al. The version-2 global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979–present). J. Hydrometeorol. 4, 1147–1167 (2003)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  25. Huffman, G. J. et al. Global precipitation at one-degree daily resolution from multisatellite observations. J. Hydrometeorol. 2, 36–50 (2001)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  26. Iguchi, T., Kozu, T., Meneghini, R., Awaka, J. & Okamoto, K. Rain-profiling algorithm for the TRMM precipitation radar. J. Appl. Meteorol. 39, 2038–2052 (2000)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  27. Rossow, W. B. & Schiffer, R. A. Advances in understanding clouds from ISCCP. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 80, 2261–2287 (1999)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  28. Oreopoulos, L. & Rossow, W. B. The cloud radiative effects of International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project weather states. J. Geophys. Res. 116, D12202 (2011)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  29. Dee, D. P. et al. The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 137, 553–597 (2011)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  30. Rossow, W. B., Walker, A. W. & Garder, L. C. Comparison of ISCCP and other cloud amounts. J. Clim. 6, 2394–2418 (1993)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

. We thank S. Sherwood and B. Stevens for comments on the study. The GPCP combined precipitation data were developed and computed by the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Centre’s Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes Laboratory as a contribution to the GEWEX Global Precipitation Climatology Project, and provided by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research and Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences Division (PSD) at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/. The TRMM 3B42 and 3A25 data were provided by the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center’s Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes Laboratory and Precipitation Processing System as a contribution to TRMM, and archived at the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center. J.T. and C.J. are funded under the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (CE110001028). W.B.R. is supported by NASA grant NNX13AO39G. G.T. acknowledges the support of the NASA Modeling Analysis and Prediction (MAP) programme managed by D. Considine. J.T. acknowledges support from the Monash University Postgraduate Publication Award.

Author information

Author notes

  1. Jackson Tan

    Present address: Present address: NASA Wallops Flight Facility, Wallops Island, Virginia 23337, USA.,

Authors and Affiliations

  1. ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Clayton, 3800, Victoria, Australia

    Jackson Tan & Christian Jakob

  2. CREST Institute at the City College of New York, New York, 10031, New York, USA

    William B. Rossow

  3. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, 10027, New York, USA

    George Tselioudis

Authors
  1. Jackson Tan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Christian Jakob
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. William B. Rossow
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. George Tselioudis
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

J.T. and C.J. designed the study. J.T. conducted the analysis and obtained the results. C.J., W.B.R. and G.T. advised on the approach. J.T., W.B.R. and G.T. checked regime time series for satellite artefacts. All authors discussed the results and contributed to the preparation of the manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jackson Tan.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Extended data figures and tables

Extended Data Figure 1 Geographical distribution of the convective cloud regimes.

The frequency averaged over the entire period (July 1983 to December 2009) in each grid box for CR1 (a), CR2 (b), and CR3 (c).

Source data

Extended Data Figure 2 Time series of the frequencies of the convective regimes.

Monthly-mean frequencies of CR1 (a), CR2 (b) and CR3 (c), as well as the sum of all convective regimes CR1–CR3 (d) in the entire domain between ±30° latitudes (solid lines). The linear least-squares regression slopes are also shown (dashed lines). The differences in means between the two halves at two standard deviations (95%) are 0.0043 ± 0.0008 (a), −0.014 ± 0.002 (b), 0.003 ± 0.003 (c) and −0.006 ± 0.004 (d).

Source data

Extended Data Figure 3 Correlations and root mean squared errors of the spatial changes to change in total precipitation.

Correlations and root mean squared errors with the first panel of the other panels in Fig. 3 (a), Fig. 4 (b) and Extended Data Fig. 4 (c).

Source data

Extended Data Figure 4 The spatial distribution of the changes in precipitation from 1997 to 2009 using GPCP 1DD.

a, Change in monthly-mean precipitation from GPCP 1DD. b, Contribution from the change in CR1 frequency. c, Contribution from the change in within-CR1 rainfall. d, Sum of the contributions from the terms of CR2 and CR3. e, Sum of the contributions from the terms of all three convective regimes. See the legend to Fig. 3 on stippling, and Extended Data Fig. 3c for correlations and root mean squared errors.

Source data

Extended Data Figure 5 Comparison between changes in organized deep convection and changes in dynamics from 1998 to 2009.

a, Changes in grid-mean vertical motion at 500 hPa from ERA-Interim (negative is ascending motion). b, Changes in frequency of CR1.

Source data

PowerPoint slides

Source data

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Tan, J., Jakob, C., Rossow, W. et al. Increases in tropical rainfall driven by changes in frequency of organized deep convection. Nature 519, 451–454 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14339

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14339

This article is cited by

Comments

By submitting a comment you agree to abide by our Terms and Community Guidelines. If you find something abusive or that does not comply with our terms or guidelines please flag it as inappropriate.

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing