Replying to E. Hawkins et al. Nature 511, 10.1038/nature13523 (2014)

In the accompanying Comment, Hawkins et al.1 suggest that our index2 of the projected timing of climate departure from recent variability is biased to occur too early and is given with overestimated confidence. We contest their assertions and maintain that our findings are conservative and remain unaltered in light of their analysis.

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    et al. Uncertainties in the timing of unprecedented climates. Nature 511, (2014)

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    et al. The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability. Nature 502, 183–187 (2013)

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    , , & Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate. Nature Clim. Change 2, 775–779 (2012)

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    & The use of the multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 365, 2053–2075 (2007)

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    & Standard deviations and standard errors. Br. Med. J. 331, 903 (2005)

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  1. Department of Geography, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa, Honolulu, Hawaii 96822, USA

    • Camilo Mora
    • , Abby G. Frazier
    • , Ryan J. Longman
    • , Joseph J. Sanchez
    • , Lauren R. Kaiser
    • , Yuko O. Stender
    • , Louise M. Giuseffi
    •  & Thomas W. Giambelluca
  2. Department of Biology, University of Hawaii at Mānoa, Honolulu, Hawaii 96822, USA

    • Rachel S. Dacks
    • , Maya M. Walton
    • , James M. Anderson
    •  & Christine M. Ambrosino
  3. Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology, University of Hawaii at Mānoa, Kāne‘ohe, Hawaii 96744, USA

    • Maya M. Walton
    • , Eric J. Tong
    • , Yuko O. Stender
    • , James M. Anderson
    • , Christine M. Ambrosino
    •  & Iria Fernandez-Silva
  4. Department of Oceanography, University of Hawaii at Mānoa, Honolulu, Hawaii 96822, USA

    • Eric J. Tong
  5. Trans-disciplinary Organization for Subtropical Island Studies (TRO-SIS), University of the Ryukyus, Senbaru, Nishihara, Okinawa 903-0213, Japan

    • Iria Fernandez-Silva


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Correspondence to Camilo Mora.

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