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Influenza

Prediction is worth a shot

Nature volume 507, pages 47–48 (2014)Cite this article

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Predicting the long-term evolution of influenza is difficult. But a model incorporating the effects of deleterious and beneficial mutations has met the more tangible goal of predicting year-to-year frequencies of viral groups. See Article p.57

Physicist Niels Bohr famously said that “prediction is difficult, especially about the future”. Perhaps even more so than in physics, this statement holds true in biology. Nevertheless, biologists have repeatedly attempted to predict how their systems will fare in the future. When it comes to systems that evolve rapidly in response to changes in their environment, prediction becomes even harder. Despite this formidable challenge, Łuksza and Lässig1, on page 57 of this issue, Łuksza and Lässig1 tackle the problems of predicting how the influenza virus will evolve from one year to the next, and how such prediction can improve seasonal-flu vaccines.

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Figure 1: Forecasting changes in influenza-clade frequencies.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Katia Koelle and David A. Rasmussen are in the Department of Biology, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708, USA.,

    Katia Koelle & David A. Rasmussen

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  1. Katia Koelle
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  2. David A. Rasmussen
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Correspondence to Katia Koelle or David A. Rasmussen.

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Koelle, K., Rasmussen, D. Prediction is worth a shot. Nature 507, 47–48 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13054

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