Predicting the long-term evolution of influenza is difficult. But a model incorporating the effects of deleterious and beneficial mutations has met the more tangible goal of predicting year-to-year frequencies of viral groups. See Article p.57
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Koelle, K., Rasmussen, D. Prediction is worth a shot. Nature 507, 47–48 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13054