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Complex systems

Spatial signatures of resilience

Nature volume 496, pages 308–309 (2013)Cite this article

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Predicting when the dynamics of a complex system will undergo a sudden transition is difficult. New experiments show that the spatial distribution of organisms can indicate when such tipping points are near. See Letter p.355

The divergence of dynamics towards sharply different states occurs in complex systems in fields ranging from physics and physiology to ecology and social sciences. The thresholds for these critical transitions are often unknown until surprising shifts occur. Establishing measures of the distance to a threshold — the resilience of a system — could allow researchers to compare the stability of different systems or even anticipate an impending transition. In a paper on page 355 of this issue, Dai et al.1 present a novel resilience index and use ingenious laboratory experiments to support the theory underlying it. Their approach is based on the spatial distribution of organisms and thereby adds, quite literally, a new dimension to attempts to predict transitionsFootnote 1.

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Figure 1: Paths to recovery.

Notes

  1. *This article and the paper under discussion were published online on 10 April 2013.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Stephen R. Carpenter is at the Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53706, USA.,

    Stephen R. Carpenter

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  1. Stephen R. Carpenter
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Correspondence to Stephen R. Carpenter.

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Carpenter, S. Spatial signatures of resilience. Nature 496, 308–309 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12092

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