Shifts in rainfall patterns and increasing temperatures associated with climate change are likely to cause widespread forest decline in regions where droughts are predicted to increase in duration and severity1. One primary cause of productivity loss and plant mortality during drought is hydraulic failure2,3,4. Drought stress creates trapped gas emboli in the water transport system, which reduces the ability of plants to supply water to leaves for photosynthetic gas exchange and can ultimately result in desiccation and mortality. At present we lack a clear picture of how thresholds to hydraulic failure vary across a broad range of species and environments, despite many individual experiments. Here we draw together published and unpublished data on the vulnerability of the transport system to drought-induced embolism for a large number of woody species, with a view to examining the likely consequences of climate change for forest biomes. We show that 70% of 226 forest species from 81 sites worldwide operate with narrow (<1 megapascal) hydraulic safety margins against injurious levels of drought stress and therefore potentially face long-term reductions in productivity and survival if temperature and aridity increase as predicted for many regions across the globe5,6. Safety margins are largely independent of mean annual precipitation, showing that there is global convergence in the vulnerability of forests to drought, with all forest biomes equally vulnerable to hydraulic failure regardless of their current rainfall environment. These findings provide insight into why drought-induced forest decline is occurring not only in arid regions but also in wet forests not normally considered at drought risk7,8.

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We thank the ARC-NZ Vegetation Function Network for hosting the original working group from which the data set was compiled. We are grateful to the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation for supporting B.C. during preparation of the manuscript.

Author information

Author notes

    • Brendan Choat
    •  & Steven Jansen

    These authors contributed equally to this work.


  1. University of Western Sydney, Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Richmond, New South Wales 2753, Australia

    • Brendan Choat
  2. Ulm University, Institute for Systematic Botany and Ecology, Albert-Einstein-Allee 11, 89081 Ulm, Germany

    • Steven Jansen
  3. University of Tasmania, School of Plant Science, Private Bag 55, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia

    • Tim J. Brodribb
  4. INRA, UMR547 PIAF, F-63100 Clermont-Ferrand, France

    • Hervé Cochard
  5. Clermont Université, Université Blaise Pascal, UMR547 PIAF, F-63000 Clermont-Ferrand, France

    • Hervé Cochard
  6. INRA, University of Bordeaux, UMR BIOGECO, 33450 Talence, France

    • Sylvain Delzon
  7. Brown University, Environmental Change Initiative, Box 1951, 167 Thayer Street, Providence, Rhode Island 02912, USA

    • Radika Bhaskar
  8. Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia San Juan Bosco, Departmento de Biología, Facultad de Ciencias Naturales, 9000 Comodoro Rivadavia, Argentina

    • Sandra J. Bucci
  9. James Cook University, School of Marine and Tropical Biology, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia

    • Taylor S. Feild
  10. Macquarie University, Department of Biological Sciences, New South Wales 2109, Australia

    • Sean M. Gleason
    • , Mark Westoby
    •  & Ian J. Wright
  11. University of Alberta, Department of Renewable Resources, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 2E3, Canada

    • Uwe G. Hacke
  12. California State University, Department of Biology, Bakersfield, California 93311, USA

    • Anna L. Jacobsen
    •  & R. Brandon Pratt
  13. Naturalis Biodiversity Centre, Leiden University, PO Box 9514, 2300 RA Leiden, The Netherlands

    • Frederic Lens
  14. University of Guelph, Department of Integrative Biology, 50 Stone Road East, Guelph, Ontario N1G 2W1, Canada

    • Hafiz Maherali
  15. CREAF, Cerdanyola del Vallès 08193, Spain

    • Jordi Martínez-Vilalta
  16. Universitat Autònoma Barcelona, Cerdanyola del Vallès 08193, Spain

    • Jordi Martínez-Vilalta
  17. University Innsbruck, Institut für Botank, Sternwartestrasse 15, A-6020 Innsbruck, Austria

    • Stefan Mayr
  18. ICREA at CREAF, Univ Autònoma Barcelona, Cerdanyola del Vallès 08193, Spain

    • Maurizio Mencuccini
  19. University of Edinburgh, School of GeoSciences, Crew Building, West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3JN, UK

    • Maurizio Mencuccini
  20. CSIRO, Ecosystem Sciences, College Road, Sandy Bay, Tasmania 7005, Australia

    • Patrick J. Mitchell
  21. Università di Trieste, Dipartimento di Scienze della Vita, Via L. Giorgieri 10, 34127 Trieste, Italy

    • Andrea Nardini
  22. University of California, Santa Cruz, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, California 95064, USA

    • Jarmila Pittermann
  23. University of Utah, Department of Biology, 257 South 1400 East, Salt Lake City, Utah 84112, USA

    • John S. Sperry
  24. Missouri Botanical Garden, Center for Conservation and Sustainable Development, St. Louis, Missouri 63166, USA

    • Amy E. Zanne
  25. George Washington University, Department of Biological Sciences, 2023 G Street NW, Washington DC 20052, USA

    • Amy E. Zanne


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B.C. and S.J. led the initial working group and coordinated the analysis and write-up of the work. B.C., S.J., T.J.B., H.C., S.D., R.B., S.J.B., T.S.F., S.M.G., U.G.H., A.L.J., F.L., H.M., J.M.-V., S.M., M.M., P.J.M., A.N., J.P., R.B.P., J.S.S., M.W., I.J.W. and A.E.Z. contributed to compilation and organization of the data set and writing of the manuscript. S.M.G. and I.J.W. extracted climate data from the WorldClim and CRU climate databases. H.M., M.M. and J.M.-V. assisted in statistical analyses of the data set.

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Steven Jansen.

Supplementary information

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  1. 1.

    Supplementary Information

    This file contains Supplementary Figures 1 and 2 and additional references.

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    Supplementary Table 1

    This file contains the dataset compiled from published work and unpublished data of the authors, including species names, Ψ50, Ψ88, Ψmin, safety margins, climate data, life form, biome, site data, and the sources of published data.This file was corrected on 23 January 2013 to correct an error in the dataset.

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