Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

The mystery of recent stratospheric temperature trends

Nature volume 491, pages 692–697 (2012)Cite this article

Subjects

Abstract

A new data set of middle- and upper-stratospheric temperatures based on reprocessing of satellite radiances provides a view of stratospheric climate change during the period 1979–2005 that is strikingly different from that provided by earlier data sets. The new data call into question our understanding of observed stratospheric temperature trends and our ability to test simulations of the stratospheric response to emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances. Here we highlight the important issues raised by the new data and suggest how the climate science community can resolve them.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Relevant articles

Open Access articles citing this article.

Access options

Rent or buy this article

Prices vary by article type

from$1.95

to$39.95

Learn more

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: Global-mean stratospheric temperature anomalies since 1979.
Figure 2: Trends in global-mean stratospheric temperatures between 1979 and 2005.
Figure 3: The north–south structure of zonal-mean stratospheric temperature trends between 1979 and 2005.

References

  1. Ramaswamy, V. et al. Stratospheric temperature trends: observations and model simulations. Rev. Geophys. 39, 71–122 (2001)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  2. Shine, K. P. et al. A comparison of model-simulated trends in stratospheric temperatures. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 129, 1565–1588 (2003)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  3. Randel, W. J. et al. An update of observed stratospheric temperature trends. J. Geophys. Res. 114, D02107 (2009)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  4. Seidel, D. J., Gillett, N. P., Lanzante, J. R., Shine, K. P. & Thorne, P. W. Stratospheric temperature trends: our evolving understanding. Wiley Interdisc. Rev. Clim. Change 2, 592–616 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Forster, P. M. et al. in Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2010, Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project Report No. 52, Ch. 4 (World Meteorological Organization, 2011)

  6. Hansen, J. et al. Forcings and chaos in interannual to decadal climate change. J. Geophys. Res. 102, 25679–25720 (1997)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  7. Trenberth, K. E. et al. in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (eds Solomon, S. et al.) Ch. 3 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007)

  8. Lanzante, J., Klein, S. & Seidel, D. J. Temporal homogenization of monthly radiosonde temperature data. Part II: Trends, sensitivities and MSU comparisons. J. Clim. 16, 241–262 (2003)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  9. Keckhut, P. et al. Review of ozone and temperature lidar validations performed within the framework of the Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change. J. Environ. Monit. 6, 721–733 (2004)

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  10. Mears, C. A. & Wentz, F. J. Construction of the Remote Sensing Systems V3.2 atmospheric temperature records from the MSU and AMSU microwave sounders. J. Atmos. Ocean. Technol. 26, 1040–1056 (2009)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  11. Christy, J. R., Spencer, R. W., Norris, W. B., Braswell, W. D. & Parke, D. E. Error estimates of version 5.0 of MSU-AMSU bulk atmospheric temperatures. J. Atmos. Ocean. Technol. 20, 613–629 (2003)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  12. Zou, C.-Z. et al. Recalibration of microwave sounding unit for climate studies using simultaneous nadir overpasses. J. Geophys. Res. 111, D19114 (2006)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  13. Nash, J. & Forrester, G. F. Long-term monitoring of stratospheric temperature trends using radiance measurements obtained by the TIROS-N series of NOAA spacecraft. Adv. Space Res. 6, 37–44 (1986). These authors pioneered the use of infrared radiances from the SSU instrument for climate studies and produced the first SSU data set.

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  14. Nash, J. Extension of explicit radiance observations by the Stratospheric Sounding Unit into the lower stratosphere and lower mesosphere. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 114, 1153–1171 (1988)

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  15. Shine, K. P., Barnett, J. J. & Randel, W. J. Temperature trends derived from Stratospheric Sounding Unit radiances: the effect of increasing CO2 on the weighting function. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L02710 (2008). These authors were the first to quantify the effect of increasing carbon dioxide on the SSU weighting function, and their work highlighted the need to revisit and reprocess the SSU data set of ref. 13.

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  16. Wang, L., Zou, C.-Z. & Qian, H. Construction of stratospheric temperature data records from stratospheric sounding units. J. Clim. 25, 2931–2946 (2012). These authors provided the first full reprocessing of the original SSU radiances, and their findings have raised serious questions regarding our understanding of stratospheric temperature trends.

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  17. SPARC Report on the Evaluation of Chemistry-Climate Models (eds Eyring, V., Shepherd, T. G. & Waugh, D. W. ) SPARC Report No. 5, WCRP-132, WMO/TD-No. 1526 http://www.sparc-climate.org (SPARC, 2010).

  18. Forster, P. M. et al. Evaluation of radiation scheme performance within chemistry climate models. J. Geophys. Res. 116, D10302 (2011)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  19. Butchart, N. et al. Simulations of anthropogenic change in the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. Clim. Dyn. 27, 727–741 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Garcia, R. R. & Randel, W. J. Acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation due to increases in greenhouse gases. J. Atmos. Sci. 65, 2731–2739 (2008)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  21. Butchart, N. et al. Chemistry-climate model simulations of 21st century stratospheric climate and circulation changes. J. Clim. 23, (2010)

  22. McLandress, C. & Shepherd, T. G. Simulated anthropogenic changes in the Brewer-Dobson circulation, including its extension to high latitudes. J. Clim. 22, 1516–1540 (2009)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  23. Shepherd, T. G. & McLandress, C. A robust mechanism for strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation in response to climate change: critical-layer control of subtropical wave breaking. J. Atmos. Sci. 68, 784–797 (2011)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  24. Garny, H., Dameris, M., Randel, W. J., Bodeker, G. E. & Deckert, R. Dynamically forced increase of tropical upwelling in the lower stratosphere. J. Atmos. Sci. 68, 1214–1233 (2011)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  25. Randel, W. J. & Thompson, A. M. Interannual variability and trends in tropical ozone derived from SAGE II satellite data and SHADOZ ozonesondes. J. Geophys. Res. 116, D07303 (2011)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  26. Douglas, A. et al. in Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2010, Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project Report No. 52, Ch. 2 (World Meteorological Organization, 2011)

  27. Free, M. et al. Radiosonde Atmospheric Temperature Products for Assessing Climate (RATPAC): a new data set of large-area anomaly time series. J. Geophys. Res. 110, D22101 (2005)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  28. Thompson, D. W. J. & Solomon, S. Recent stratospheric climate trends as evidenced in radiosonde data: global structure and tropospheric linkages. J. Clim. 18, 4785–4795 (2005)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  29. Young, P. J. et al. Changes in stratospheric temperatures and their implications for changes in the Brewer Dobson Circulation, 1979–2005. J. Clim. 25, 1759–1772 (2012)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  30. Wang, L. & Waugh, D. W. Chemistry-climate model simulations of recent trends in lower stratospheric temperature and stratospheric residual circulation. J. Geophys. Res. 117, D09109 (2012)

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  31. Deshler, T. A review of global stratospheric aerosol: measurements, importance, life cycle, and local stratospheric aerosol. Atmos. Res. 90, 223–232 (2008)

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  32. Solomon, S., Young, P. J. & Hassler, B. Uncertainties in the evolution of statospheric ozone and implications for recent temperature changes in the tropical lower stratosphere. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L17706 (2012)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  33. Seidel, D. J. et al. Reference upper-air observations for climate: rationale, progress, and plans. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 90, 361–369 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We thank K. Shine, M. Dameris, M. Free and R. Saunders for suggestions and comments on the manuscript. D.W.J.T. is supported by the National Science Foundation Climate Dynamics Program under budget number AGS-0936255. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s (WCRP) Working Group on Coupled Modelling and the WCRP CCM Validation project (CCMVal), which are responsible for archiving the CMIP5 and CCMVal2 output, respectively. We also thank the climate modelling groups for producing and making available their model output as listed in Table 1. For CMIP the US Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, 80523, Colorado, USA

    David W. J. Thompson

  2. NOAA Air Resources Laboratory, College Park, 20740, Maryland, USA

    Dian J. Seidel

  3. Atmospheric Chemistry Division, NCAR, Boulder, 80307, Colorado, USA

    William J. Randel

  4. NOAA/NESDIS/Center for Satellite Applications and Research , College Park, 20740, Maryland, USA

    Cheng-Zhi Zou

  5. NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center, College Park, 20740, Maryland, USA

    Amy H. Butler, Craig Long & Roger Lin

  6. Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa, 95401, California, USA

    Carl Mears

  7. Department of Astronomy and Meteorology, University of Barcelona, Barcelona 08028, Spain,

    Albert Osso

Authors
  1. David W. J. Thompson
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Dian J. Seidel
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. William J. Randel
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Cheng-Zhi Zou
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Amy H. Butler
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Carl Mears
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. Albert Osso
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  8. Craig Long
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  9. Roger Lin
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

D.W.J.T. led the analyses and the writing of the text. D.J.S., W.J.R. and C.-Z.Z. contributed to the text and analysis design and provided guidance on all aspects of the study. A.H.B. provided the CMIP5 output, assisted with the analyses of the model output, and provided advice on the text. C.M. provided expertise on the data sets used in the study and advice on the text. A.O. assisted with the analyses and data processing and provided advice on the text. C.L. and R.L. provided advice on the text.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to David W. J. Thompson.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

PowerPoint slides

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Thompson, D., Seidel, D., Randel, W. et al. The mystery of recent stratospheric temperature trends. Nature 491, 692–697 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11579

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11579

This article is cited by

Comments

By submitting a comment you agree to abide by our Terms and Community Guidelines. If you find something abusive or that does not comply with our terms or guidelines please flag it as inappropriate.

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing