Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

Observations of increased tropical rainfall preceded by air passage over forests

A Corrigendum to this article was published on 30 January 2013

This article has been updated

Abstract

Vegetation affects precipitation patterns by mediating moisture, energy and trace-gas fluxes between the surface and atmosphere1. When forests are replaced by pasture or crops, evapotranspiration of moisture from soil and vegetation is often diminished, leading to reduced atmospheric humidity and potentially suppressing precipitation2,3. Climate models predict that large-scale tropical deforestation causes reduced regional precipitation4,5,6,7,8,9,10, although the magnitude of the effect is model9,11 and resolution8 dependent. In contrast, observational studies have linked deforestation to increased precipitation locally12,13,14 but have been unable to explore the impact of large-scale deforestation. Here we use satellite remote-sensing data of tropical precipitation and vegetation, combined with simulated atmospheric transport patterns, to assess the pan-tropical effect of forests on tropical rainfall. We find that for more than 60 per cent of the tropical land surface (latitudes 30 degrees south to 30 degrees north), air that has passed over extensive vegetation in the preceding few days produces at least twice as much rain as air that has passed over little vegetation. We demonstrate that this empirical correlation is consistent with evapotranspiration maintaining atmospheric moisture in air that passes over extensive vegetation. We combine these empirical relationships with current trends of Amazonian deforestation to estimate reductions of 12 and 21 per cent in wet-season and dry-season precipitation respectively across the Amazon basin by 2050, due to less-efficient moisture recycling. Our observation-based results complement similar estimates from climate models4,5,6,7,8,9,10, in which the physical mechanisms and feedbacks at work could be explored in more detail.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Rent or buy this article

Prices vary by article type

from$1.95

to$39.95

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: Annual (2001–2007) mean vegetation, precipitation and evaporation.
Figure 2: Relationships between daily precipitation and cumulative exposure of 10-d back-trajectories to vegetation LAI ( LAI) for 2001–2007.
Figure 3: Atmospheric water-budget components along back-trajectories.
Figure 4: Simulated percentage change in precipitation due to 2000–2050 business-as-usual deforestation of the Amazon basin.

Similar content being viewed by others

Change history

  • 12 September 2012

    Units in Fig. 1c and colour bar values in Fig. 4b were corrected.

References

  1. Bonan, G. B. Forests and climate change: forcings, feedbacks, and the climate benefit of forests. Science 320, 1444–1449 (2008)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  2. Shukla, J. & Mintz, Y. Influence of land-surface evapotranspiration on the Earth’s climate. Science 215, 1498–1501 (1982)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  3. Eltahir, E. A. B. & Bras, R. L. Precipitation recycling in the Amazon basin. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 120, 861–880 (1994)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  4. Henderson-Sellers, A. & Gornitz, V. Possible climatic impacts of land cover transformations, with particular emphasis on tropical deforestation. Clim. Change 6, 231–257 (1984)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  5. Lean, J. & Warrilow, D. A. Simulation of the regional climatic impact of Amazon deforestation. Nature 342, 411–413 (1989)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  6. Shukla, J., Nobre, C. & Sellers, P. Amazon deforestation and climate change. Science 247, 1322–1325 (1990)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  7. Werth, D. & Avissar, R. The local and global effects of Amazon deforestation. J. Geophys. Res. 107, 8087 (2002)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Ramos da Silva, R., Werth, D. & Avissar, R. Regional impacts of future land-cover changes on the Amazon basin wet-season climate. J. Clim. 21, 1153–1170 (2008)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  9. Hasler, N., Werth, D. & Avissar, R. Effects of tropical deforestation on global hydroclimate: a multimodel ensemble analysis. J. Clim. 22, 1124–1141 (2009)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  10. Nobre, P. et al. Amazon deforestation and climate change in a coupled model simulation. J. Clim. 22, 5686–5697 (2009)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  11. Pitman, A. J. et al. Uncertainties in climate responses to past land cover change: first results from the LUCID intercomparison study. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L14814 (2009)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  12. Butt, N., de Oliveira, P. A. & Costa, M. H. Evidence that deforestation affects the onset of the rainy season in Rondonia, Brazil. J. Geophys. Res. 116, D11120 (2011)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  13. Negri, A. J., Adler, R. F., Xu, L. & Surratt, J. The impact of Amazonian deforestation on dry season rainfall. J. Clim. 17, 1306–1319 (2004)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  14. Chagnon, F. J. F. & Bras, R. L. Contemporary climate change in the Amazon. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L13703 (2005)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  15. Huffman, G. et al. The TRMM multisatellite precipitation analysis (TMPA): quasi-global, multiyear, combined-sensor precipitation estimates at fine scales. J. Hydrometeorol. 8, 38–55 (2007)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  16. Myneni, R. B. et al. Global products of vegetation leaf area index and fraction absorbed PAR from year one of MODIS data. Remote Sens. Environ. 83, 214–231 (2002)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  17. Gimeno, L., Drumond, A., Nieto, R., Trigo, R. M. & Stohl, A. On the origin of continental precipitation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 37, L13804 (2010)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  18. van der Ent, R. J., Savenije, H. H. G., Schaefli, B. & Steele-Dunne, S. C. Origin and fate of atmospheric moisture over continents. Wat. Resour. Res. 46, W09525 (2010)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  19. Aragão, L. E. O. C. et al. Spatial validation of collection 4 MODIS LAI product in eastern Amazonia. IEEE Trans. Geosci. Rem. Sens. 43, 2526–2534 (2005)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  20. Rodell, M. et al. The global land data assimilation system. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 85, 381–394 (2004)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  21. Wang, J. F., Bras, R. L. & Eltahir, E. A. B. The impact of observed deforestation on the mesoscale distribution on the mesoscale distribution of rainfall and clouds in Amazonia. J. Hydrometeorol. 1, 267–286 (2000)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  22. Garcia-Carreras, L. & Parker, D. J. How does local tropical deforestation affect rainfall? Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L19802 (2011)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  23. Andreae, M. O. et al. Smoking rain clouds over the Amazon. Science 303, 1337–1342 (2004)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  24. Koren, I. et al. Aerosol-induced intensification of rain from the tropics to mid-latitudes. Nature Geosci. 5, 118–122 (2012)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  25. Soares-Fihlo, B. S. et al. Modelling conservation in the Amazon basin. Nature 440, 520–523 (2006)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  26. Phillips, O. L. et al. Drought sensitivity of the Amazon rainforest. Science 323, 1344–1347 (2009)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  27. Aragão, L. E. O. C. et al. Spatial patterns and fire response of recent Amazonian droughts. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L07701 (2007)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  28. Davidson, E. A. et al. The Amazon basin in transition. Nature 481, 321–328 (2012)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  29. Huffman, G. J. Estimates of root-mean-square random error for finite samples of estimated precipitation. J. Appl. Meteorol. 36, 1191–1201 (1997)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  30. Smith, T. M., Arkin, P. A., Bates, J. J. & Huffman, G. J. Estimating bias of satellite precipitation estimates. J. Hydrometeorol. 7, 841–856 (2006)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  31. Methven, J. Offline Trajectories: Calculation and Accuracy (Technical Report 44, UK Universities Global Atmospheric Modelling Programme, University of Reading, 1997)

    Google Scholar 

  32. Aragão, L. E. O. C., Shimabukuro, Y. E., Santo, F. D. B. E. & Williams, M. Landscape pattern and spatial variability of leaf area index in Eastern Amazonia. For. Ecol. Mgmt. 211, 240–256 (2005)

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

D.V.S. acknowledges a Natural Environment Research Council grant (NE/G015015/1). The GLDAS data used in this study were acquired as part of the mission of NASA’s Earth Science Division and were archived and distributed by the Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Contributions

D.V.S. and S.R.A. initiated the project. All authors participated in discussions, conducted the analysis, assisted with data interpretation and wrote the manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to D. V. Spracklen.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

This file contains Supplementary Tables 1-2 and Supplementary Figures 1-9. (PDF 555 kb)

PowerPoint slides

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Spracklen, D., Arnold, S. & Taylor, C. Observations of increased tropical rainfall preceded by air passage over forests. Nature 489, 282–285 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11390

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11390

This article is cited by

Comments

By submitting a comment you agree to abide by our Terms and Community Guidelines. If you find something abusive or that does not comply with our terms or guidelines please flag it as inappropriate.

Search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing