Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification

Abstract

The rise in Arctic near-surface air temperatures has been almost twice as large as the global average in recent decades1,2,3—a feature known as ‘Arctic amplification’. Increased concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases have driven Arctic and global average warming1,4; however, the underlying causes of Arctic amplification remain uncertain. The roles of reductions in snow and sea ice cover5,6,7 and changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulation8,9,10, cloud cover and water vapour11,12 are still matters of debate. A better understanding of the processes responsible for the recent amplified warming is essential for assessing the likelihood, and impacts, of future rapid Arctic warming and sea ice loss13,14. Here we show that the Arctic warming is strongest at the surface during most of the year and is primarily consistent with reductions in sea ice cover. Changes in cloud cover, in contrast, have not contributed strongly to recent warming. Increases in atmospheric water vapour content, partly in response to reduced sea ice cover, may have enhanced warming in the lower part of the atmosphere during summer and early autumn. We conclude that diminishing sea ice has had a leading role in recent Arctic temperature amplification. The findings reinforce suggestions that strong positive ice–temperature feedbacks have emerged in the Arctic15, increasing the chances of further rapid warming and sea ice loss, and will probably affect polar ecosystems, ice-sheet mass balance and human activities in the Arctic2.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Rent or buy this article

Prices vary by article type

from$1.95

to$39.95

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: Surface amplification of temperature trends, 1989–2008.
Figure 2: Temperature trends linked to changes in sea ice.
Figure 3: Impacts of cloud-cover changes on the net surface radiation.
Figure 4: Atmospheric moisture trends, 1989–2008.

References

  1. Solomon, S. et al., eds. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007)

    Google Scholar 

  2. Symon, C., Arris, L., Heal, B. eds. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2004)

    Google Scholar 

  3. Serreze, M. C. & Francis, J. A. The Arctic amplification debate. Clim. Change 76, 241–264 (2006)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  4. Gillett, N. P. et al. Attribution of polar warming to human influence. Nature Geosci. 1, 750–754 (2008)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  5. Stroeve, J., Holland, M. M., Meir, W., Scambos, T. & Serreze, M. Arctic sea ice decline: faster than forecast. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34 10.1029/2007GL029703 (2007)

  6. Serreze, M. C., Holland, M. M. & Stroeve, J. Perspectives of the Arctic’s shrinking ice cover. Science 315, 1533–1536 (2007)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  7. Comiso, J. C., Parkinson, C. L., Gersten, R. & Stock, L. Accelerated decline in the Arctic sea ice cover. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35 10.1029/2007GL031972 (2008)

  8. Graversen, R. G., Mauritsen, T., Tjernström, M., Källén, E. & Svensson, G. Vertical structure of recent Arctic warming. Nature 451, 53–56 (2008)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  9. Simmonds, I. & Keay, K. Extraordinary September Arctic sea ice reductions and their relationships with storm behavior over 1979–2008. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36 10.1029/2009GL039810 (2009)

  10. Chylek, P., Folland, C. K., Lesins, G., Dubey, M. K. & Wang, M. Arctic air temperature change amplification and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36 10.1029/2009GL038777 (2009)

  11. Schweiger, A. J., Lindsay, R. W., Vavrus, S. & Francis, J. A. Relationships between Arctic sea ice and clouds during autumn. J. Clim. 21, 4799–4810 (2008)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  12. Francis, J. A. & Hunter, E. Changes in the fabric of the Arctic’s greenhouse blanket. Environ. Res. Lett. 2 10.1088/1748–9326/2/4/045011 (2007)

  13. Holland, M. M., Bitz, C. M. & Tremblay, B. Future abrupt reductions in the summer Arctic sea ice. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33 10.1029/2006GL028024 (2006)

  14. Boé, J., Hall, A. & Qu, X. September sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean projected to vanish by 2100. Nature Geosci. 2, 341–343 (2009)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  15. Serreze, M. C., Barrett, A. P., Stroeve, J. C., Kindig, D. N. & Holland, M. M. The emergence of surface-based Arctic amplification. Cryosphere 3, 11–19 (2009)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  16. Holland, M. M. & Bitz, C. M. Polar amplification of climate change in coupled models. Clim. Dyn. 21, 221–232 (2003)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Winton, M. Amplified climate change: what does surface albedo feedback have to do with it? Geophys. Res. Lett. 33 10.1029/2005GL025244 (2006)

  18. Lu, J. & Cai, M. Seasonality of polar surface warming amplification in climate simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36 10.1029/2009GL040133 (2009)

  19. Graversen, R. G. & Wang, M. Polar amplification in a coupled model with locked albedo. Clim. Dyn. 33, 629–643 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Boé, J., Hall, A. & Qu, X. Current GCMs’ unrealistic negative feedback in the Arctic. J. Clim. 22, 4682–4695 (2009)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  21. Smedsrud, L. H., Sorteberg, A. & Kloster, K. Recent and future changes of the Arctic sea-ice cover. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35 10.1029/2008GL034813 (2008)

  22. Deser, C., Tomas, R., Alexander, M. & Lawrence, D. The seasonal atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss in the late twenty-first century. J. Clim. 23, 333–351 (2010)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  23. Thorne, P. W. Arctic tropospheric warming amplification? Nature 455, E1–E2 (2008)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  24. Grant, A. N., Brönnimann, S. & Haimberger, L. Recent Arctic warming vertical structure contested. Nature 455, E2–E3 (2008)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  25. Bitz, C. M. & Fu, Q. Arctic warming aloft is data set dependent. Nature 455, E3–E4 (2008)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  26. Dee, D. P. & Uppala, S. Variational bias correction of satellite radiance data in the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 135, 1830–1841 (2009)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  27. Higgins, M. E. & Cassano, J. J. Impacts of reduced sea ice on winter Arctic atmospheric circulation, precipitation and temperature. J. Geophys. Res. 114 10.1029/2009JD011884 (2009)

  28. Kwok, R. & Rothrock, D. A. Decline in Arctic sea ice thickness from submarine and ICESat records: 1958–2008. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36 10.1029/2009GL039035 (2009)

  29. Lindsay, R. W., Zhang, J., Schweiger, A., Steele, M. & Stern, H. Arctic sea ice retreat in 2007 follows thinning trend. J. Clim. 22, 165–176 (2009)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  30. Intrieri, J. M. et al. An annual cycle of Arctic surface cloud forcing at SHEBA. J. Geophys. Res. 107 10.1029/2000JC000439 (2002)

Download references

Acknowledgements

We thank N. Gillett and R. Graversen for comments on the manuscript. The ERA-Interim data were obtained from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts data server. Parts of this research were supported by funding from the Australian Research Council.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Contributions

The analysis was performed and the manuscript written by J.A.S. Both authors contributed with ideas and discussions.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to James A. Screen.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

This file contains a Supplementary Discussion, Supplementary Figures 1-2 with legends, Supplementary Table 1 and References. (PDF 249 kb)

PowerPoint slides

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Screen, J., Simmonds, I. The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification. Nature 464, 1334–1337 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09051

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09051

This article is cited by

Comments

By submitting a comment you agree to abide by our Terms and Community Guidelines. If you find something abusive or that does not comply with our terms or guidelines please flag it as inappropriate.

Search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing