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Advances in development reverse fertility declines

Abstract

During the twentieth century, the global population has gone through unprecedented increases in economic and social development that coincided with substantial declines in human fertility and population growth rates1,2. The negative association of fertility with economic and social development has therefore become one of the most solidly established and generally accepted empirical regularities in the social sciences1,2,3. As a result of this close connection between development and fertility decline, more than half of the global population now lives in regions with below-replacement fertility (less than 2.1 children per woman)4. In many highly developed countries, the trend towards low fertility has also been deemed irreversible5,6,7,8,9. Rapid population ageing, and in some cases the prospect of significant population decline, have therefore become a central socioeconomic concern and policy challenge10. Here we show, using new cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of the total fertility rate and the human development index (HDI), a fundamental change in the well-established negative relationship between fertility and development as the global population entered the twenty-first century. Although development continues to promote fertility decline at low and medium HDI levels, our analyses show that at advanced HDI levels, further development can reverse the declining trend in fertility. The previously negative development–fertility relationship has become J-shaped, with the HDI being positively associated with fertility among highly developed countries. This reversal of fertility decline as a result of continued economic and social development has the potential to slow the rates of population ageing, thereby ameliorating the social and economic problems that have been associated with the emergence and persistence of very low fertility.

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Figure 1: Cross-sectional relationship between TFR and HDI in 1975 and 2005.
Figure 2: Within-country time-path of the HDI–TFR relationship for all countries that attained an HDI ≥ 0.9 by 2005.
Figure 3: Effect of 1-unit change in HDI on TFR.

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Acknowledgements

M.M. acknowledges support from the University of Pennsylvania, the Finnish Cultural Foundation, and the Ella and Georg Ehrnrooth foundation. H.-P.K. acknowledges the support provided by the Center for Advanced Studies at the Norwegian Academy of Science and the University of Pennsylvania. F.C.B. acknowledges support from Università Bocconi, the Italian Ministry for University and Research and the Distinguished International Scholars Program at the University of Pennsylvania. We are grateful to T. Sobotka for the provision of tempo-adjusted fertility data used in our analyses.

Author Contributions All authors contributed equally to this paper.

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Correspondence to Hans-Peter Kohler.

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Supplementary Information

This file contains Supplementary Data and Methods including Supplementary Tables S1-S3 and Supplementary Figures S1-S2 with Legends and Supplementary References. (PDF 232 kb)

Supplementary Data

This dataset file contains the HDI and TFR data used in analyses for this article. (ZIP 37 kb)

Supplementary Script 1

This file contains the R Scripts to replace replicate figures in this article. (ZIP 3 kb)

Supplementary Script 2

This file contains the R script with functions necessary for Script 1. (TXT 3 kb)

Supplementary Script 3

This file contains the SAS Script for replicating regression results. (ZIP 3 kb)

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Myrskylä, M., Kohler, HP. & Billari, F. Advances in development reverse fertility declines. Nature 460, 741–743 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08230

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