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Mountain pine beetle and forest carbon feedback to climate change


The mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae) is a native insect of the pine forests of western North America, and its populations periodically erupt into large-scale outbreaks1,2,3. During outbreaks, the resulting widespread tree mortality reduces forest carbon uptake and increases future emissions from the decay of killed trees. The impacts of insects on forest carbon dynamics, however, are generally ignored in large-scale modelling analyses. The current outbreak in British Columbia, Canada, is an order of magnitude larger in area and severity than all previous recorded outbreaks4. Here we estimate that the cumulative impact of the beetle outbreak in the affected region during 2000–2020 will be 270 megatonnes (Mt) carbon (or 36 g carbon m-2 yr-1 on average over 374,000 km2 of forest). This impact converted the forest from a small net carbon sink to a large net carbon source both during and immediately after the outbreak. In the worst year, the impacts resulting from the beetle outbreak in British Columbia were equivalent to 75% of the average annual direct forest fire emissions from all of Canada during 1959–1999. The resulting reduction in net primary production was of similar magnitude to increases observed during the 1980s and 1990s as a result of global change5. Climate change has contributed to the unprecedented extent and severity of this outbreak6. Insect outbreaks such as this represent an important mechanism by which climate change may undermine the ability of northern forests to take up and store atmospheric carbon, and such impacts should be accounted for in large-scale modelling analyses.

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Figure 1: Geographic extent of mountain pine beetle outbreak in North America.
Figure 2: Annual NBP by percentile from the Monte Carlo simulations.
Figure 3: Area infested with the mountain pine beetle during the simulation period.
Figure 4: Total ecosystem carbon stock change for three scenarios.

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Funding for this study was provided by Canada’s Climate Change Action Plan. We thank British Columbia Ministry of Forests and Range (MoFR) collaborators for providing data and detailed reviews: D. Draper, G. Lawrence, M. Boyce and D. Spittlehouse. S. Beukema provided assistance in formatting MoFR data for use in CBM-CFS3. Fire and beetle projection methodologies were developed with the assistance of J. Metsaranta, S. Beukema, B. Stocks, B. Amiro, M. Flannigan, R. Landry, B. de Groot, K. Anderson, S. Taylor and T. Shore. Climate data were provided by D. McKenney. CBM-CFS3 model development was assisted by T. White, G. Zhang, M. Magnan, E. Banfield, C. Shaw and B. Simpson. Finally, we thank V. Nealis, D. Draper, D. Spittlehouse and A. Nussbaum for comments on an earlier draft.

Author Contributions All authors contributed to study design, model parameterizations, and development of future projections; C.C.D., G.J.R., G.S. and E.T.N. conducted model simulations; W.A.K., C.C.D., G.S. and E.T.N. analysed results; and all authors contributed to the manuscript.

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Correspondence to W. A. Kurz.

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The file contains Supplementary Notes, Supplementary Tables S1-S7, Supplementary Figures S1-S5 with Legends and additional references. (PDF 695 kb)

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Kurz, W., Dymond, C., Stinson, G. et al. Mountain pine beetle and forest carbon feedback to climate change. Nature 452, 987–990 (2008).

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