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We also question aspects of the timing, magnitude and inferred consequences of the gas-hydrate release events. Kemp et al.2 erect a cyclostratigraphic scheme on which they found their claim that the three carbon isotope spikes all occurred within a 60,000-year period. But they do not explain how a 3‰ recovery could have occurred between their second and third excursions. This interval is only 25% of the residence time of carbon in the oceans (180,000 yr; ref. 5) and is thus too short to represent a relaxation process. Their data show further very rapid declines in δ13Corg values (for example, at 1.6 m and 2.9 m in their section) and these were not given equal status as gas-hydrate-release events. Furthermore, with three, and possibly five, closely spaced release events, there would not have been sufficient time to replenish the clathrate reservoirs between events.

Kemp et al.2 note that one consequence of the release of huge amounts of methane (at least 5,000 gigatonnes of carbon by their calculations) was the development of a severe greenhouse climate and, as a direct (but unexplained) result, the extinction of many marine species. However, this is not supported by the work they cite. The authors suggest that there could have been a sudden rise in seawater temperatures coincident with methane release6, where “sudden” indicates a period of 0.6 to 0.7 million years (ref. 6). Note also that the temperature rise began in the Dactylioceras tenuicostatum subzone6, whereas the lowest δ13Corg excursion of Kemp et al.2 is not developed until late in the succeeding Dactylioceras semicelatum subzone. Furthermore, the younger two release events coincide with a proposed phase of marked cooling, according to stomatal index data7.

The claim by Kemp et al. that the first two methane-release events led to a 67% and 50% loss in species was derived from the work of Harries and Little8; however, the resolution of that study is too low to equate the extinction losses to the level of the excursions. The original data set9 and our later findings10 show that extinction in these Yorkshire coast sections occurs in Bed 31, where 12 of 14 benthic species go extinct. This crisis was 60,000 years before the first methane-release event, according to the timescale of Kemp et al. Other extinctions in the European region were even earlier, with many taxa disappearing at the Pliensbachian–Toarcian stage boundary11. There is therefore no evidence to relate the Toarcian mass extinction to the effects of gas-hydrate dissociation events, although they do relate to the development of bottom-water anoxia.